The latest ZiPS projections show a tricky road ahead for the Arizona Diamondbacks’ 2026 season. They look better on paper than last year, but still feel like longshots in a tough NL West.
This is a team with a strong young core, a rotation that feels fragile, and a farm system that isn’t quite ready to bail out the big-league roster. Arizona hovers between fringe Wild Card hopeful and middle-of-the-pack also-ran, teetering on the edge.
Diamondbacks Enter 2026 as a Work in Progress, Not a Powerhouse
Arizona’s front office hoped last offseason’s splashy move for Corbin Burnes would speed up their journey from rebuilding project to real contender. Instead, the 2025 season just exposed how thin their margin for error remains in Phoenix.
Injuries to Burnes, inconsistent starting pitching, and a lineup with obvious holes kept the Diamondbacks floating around .500. ZiPS sees a small step forward in 2026, but not the leap that fans dreamed of when Burnes landed in the desert.
The Core That Keeps Arizona Relevant
If Arizona’s going to defy the projection systems, it’ll be thanks to an increasingly impressive position-player core. ZiPS is pretty high on a quartet that could anchor the next great Diamondbacks team:
ZiPS treats that group as true difference-makers. That’s the kind of core that could support a contender—if the rest of the roster can keep up.
Lineup Holes Keep the Ceiling in Check
Outside those headliners, things get a lot less certain. ZiPS isn’t nearly as generous about Arizona’s corner spots and offensive depth, and that’s where the path to contention really narrows.
Corner Outfield, DH, and Depth Are Red Flags
The projections are pretty skeptical about the Diamondbacks’ options in the corner outfield and at designated hitter. These are usually the spots where you want some thunder, but Arizona’s mix looks pretty average, maybe worse, with shaky power and on-base skills.
Depth is another sore spot. When injuries or cold streaks hit, the drop-off from Arizona’s starters to the bench could be steep. ZiPS doesn’t see a bunch of hidden gems waiting to break out, either.
Third Base: Solid, If Unspectacular
At third base, ZiPS calls for basically average production, but there’s at least some intrigue. The position likely goes to Jordan Lawlar and Blaze Alexander:
It’s not a strength, but it’s not a glaring weakness either. For a team with bigger problems elsewhere, that’s something.
Pitching Staff: Questions at the Front, Pressure in the Middle
The rotation is where Arizona’s 2026 outlook gets a lot shakier. Even after the Burnes blockbuster and earlier hype around other arms, ZiPS sees more volatility than stability here.
Merrill Kelly’s “Last Hurrah” and a Thin Margin
Merrill Kelly projects for what’s probably his last peak season—a “last hurrah” where he can still deliver quality innings before age catches up. His performance matters a lot, especially with so many variables around him.
ZiPS puts pressure on Brandon Pfaadt, Ryne Nelson, and Eduardo Rodríguez. Each has flashed mid-rotation potential, but now the projections basically say: prove it, or Arizona’s rotation could go from decent to dicey in a hurry.
Burnes, Gallen, and the Cloud Over the Rotation
The Burnes trade was supposed to steady the top of the staff, but ZiPS expects him to miss most of the 2026 season. That basically wipes out his impact for the year.
On top of that, Zac Gallen is staring at free agency, adding even more uncertainty to Arizona’s pitching future. Without Burnes at full strength and with Gallen’s status up in the air, the staff feels more like patchwork than powerhouse, and the projections reflect that.
Farm System and Bullpen: Help and Hope, But Not Guarantees
Anyone hoping the farm system might soon flood the roster with reinforcements gets a reality check from ZiPS, especially in the upper minors.
ZiPS Skeptical on Druw Jones and the High Minors
Top prospect Druw Jones still has plenty of name value, but ZiPS isn’t buying a big short-term impact. The model flags his bat as likely to lag behind the hype, at least for now, so don’t expect him to swoop in and save the lineup overnight.
ZiPS doesn’t see a wave of near-ready, high-impact talent in the high minors. Arizona probably has to stick with most of what’s already on the 26-man roster for 2026.
Relief Corps Offers a Quiet Bright Spot
The bullpen actually offers a bit of hope. ZiPS projects the relief unit better than Steamer does at the top end, hinting at a potential strength people might overlook. Key names include:
If that group holds up, Arizona could shorten games and cover for some of the rotation’s shakiness. It’s not a fix-all, but it’s something to hang onto.
Where ZiPS Ultimately Lands: Fringe Wild Card, Not Division Favorite
ZiPS puts the Diamondbacks right back in that familiar, slightly maddening spot: a fringe Wild Card team. There’s enough talent here to let fans dream, but not quite enough certainty to chase down the Dodgers or Giants over a full season.
If Arizona wants to break through in 2026, a lot needs to fall into place. They’d need healthy, effective pitching beyond just Kelly, some unexpectedly solid production from the corners, and maybe a couple of surprises from the farm or the roster’s outer edges.
Here is the source article for this story: 2026 ZiPS Projections: Arizona Diamondbacks
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