2026 ZiPS Projections: Baltimore Orioles’ Breakout Candidates and Outlook

The Baltimore Orioles went into the winter looking for answers after a frustrating 2025 season. One of baseball’s most respected projection systems, ZiPS, thinks a rebound is coming.

ZiPS, which leans on data-driven forecasts, sees reasons for optimism in 2026. Still, it warns about roster construction, pitching depth, and looming contract decisions that could steer the franchise in a totally new direction.

ZiPS Sees a Bounce-Back Season on the Horizon

After a 75–87 finish in 2025, the Orioles looked like a team that lost its offensive identity and never really fixed its pitching. ZiPS expects improvement in 2026, mostly thanks to an offense that should find its footing again.

The model thinks Baltimore’s lineup has enough proven talent and emerging youth to claw back toward respectability in the brutal AL East. But this optimism isn’t a guarantee—health, roster balance, and smart moves in the front office will decide if this team actually contends or just spins its wheels.

The Offensive Core: Power, Promise, and Pressure

Pete Alonso’s arrival looms large in ZiPS’ outlook for the offense. He brings real middle-of-the-order power, something Baltimore sorely missed last year.

Pair Alonso with Gunnar Henderson, who ZiPS calls the club’s best player, and you’ve got a foundation for a bounce-back. Henderson’s steady play gives the Orioles a star to anchor the lineup, but all eyes are also on Adley Rutschman.

While Rutschman’s projection stays solid, ZiPS hints 2026 could be a make-or-break year for his long-term standing as an elite catcher. If he returns to top form, the lineup stabilizes. If not, there’ll be some tough questions to answer.

Young Talent Brings Upside—and Risk

Baltimore’s farm system keeps feeding the roster. ZiPS seems intrigued by the next wave, especially Jackson Holliday, who stands out as a high-upside player whose growth could swing the team’s fate.

Learning Curves at the Major League Level

ZiPS points out Holliday’s current flaws—big platoon splits and some defensive hiccups. But the long-term potential is obvious.

Samuel Basallo is projected as a useful depth piece, able to back up key spots while he keeps developing. The youth movement gives the Orioles options, but it also brings volatility—young players almost never progress in straight lines, right?

The Rotation: Fragile and Incomplete

If ZiPS has a big concern, it’s the starting rotation. On paper, names like Shane Baz, Zach Eflin, Kyle Bradish, Trevor Rogers, and Dean Kremer look promising.

But let’s be honest—each of those guys has battled injuries. Beyond Cade Povich, depth drops off fast, leaving the rotation exposed if things go sideways.

Why One More Starter Could Define the Season

ZiPS and its author both say the Orioles need at least one more reliable starter. Framber Valdez gets mentioned as a dream target, someone who could steady the group and keep the rotation from turning into a trade-deadline headache.

Bullpen Strength Provides a Safety Net

Surprisingly, the bullpen gets high marks even with Félix Bautista out after rotator cuff surgery. ZiPS sees Ryan Helsley as the closer and expects several relievers to post ERAs around 3.00.

Depth Arms ZiPS Likes

The system highlights a mix of mid-rotation and relief options, including:

ZiPS also points to a few under-the-radar relievers who might quietly chip in quality innings. Maybe that’s wishful thinking, but sometimes those guys make all the difference.

AL East Outlook and a Critical Decision

ZiPS puts Baltimore in the AL East’s second tier—just behind the Red Sox and Blue Jays, and about level with the Yankees.

So what’s next? Stay healthy, bring in a starter, and commit to the franchise cornerstone.

Honestly, locking up Gunnar Henderson for the long haul might calm a restless fanbase. It’d show the Orioles actually want to turn all this projected improvement into something real—and maybe, just maybe, lasting.

 
Here is the source article for this story: 2026 ZiPS Projections: Baltimore Orioles