2026 ZiPS Projections: Colorado Rockies Forecast and Key Players

The ZiPS projection system has spoken. For the Colorado Rockies, the message for 2026 feels painfully familiar: more losing in the short term, but with a flicker of optimism about the direction the team might finally be taking.

After a brutal 119-loss disaster in 2025, projections suggest another 100-loss season is looming. Still, behind the bleak numbers, you can spot hints of a long-overdue organizational reset trying to take shape.

ZiPS Forecast Paints Another Grim Picture for 2026

ZiPS, with its reputation for sharp baseball predictions, doesn’t sugarcoat Colorado’s outlook. Even with a little improvement, the Rockies are still on track to lose about 100 games in 2026.

The hole is deep after years of mismanagement and questionable roster moves. But now, the system sees something new: a plan, maybe even a vision—something that used to be missing in Denver.

From 119 Losses to Incremental Progress

Context matters. Coming off 119 losses, even a 60-win season would technically be a step forward.

ZiPS expects small steps, not miracles, partly because the Rockies’ roster and farm system are still painfully thin.

Paul DePodesta Signals a Changing Philosophy

The biggest change isn’t on the field—it’s in the front office. Ownership’s decision to bring in Paul DePodesta as head of baseball operations marks a sharp break from the Jeff Bridich era.

That era often ignored modern analytics and undervalued smart roster building. This move hints that the Rockies are finally ready to embrace data-driven decisions, even if the payoff isn’t right around the corner.

Modernizing Baseball Operations

DePodesta’s history suggests he values process over quick fixes. ZiPS picks up on this, projecting long-term growth for the organization.

The roster just isn’t there yet for a rapid rebuild, though.

Position Players: Limited Upside, Few Cornerstones

Offensively, ZiPS only sees a handful of real building blocks. Ezequiel Tovar remains the key positional player, and Brenton Doyle is projected to bounce back after some rocky stretches.

The catching duo of Hunter Goodman and Braxton Fulford brings a little hope, and Adael Amador helps round out the infield.

Roster Weaknesses Remain Obvious

Second base is still a big problem. ZiPS is mixed elsewhere:

Pitching Depth Still Alarmingly Thin

If the lineup lacks stars, the pitching staff has even fewer answers. ZiPS struggles to find any near-term starters who can steady the rotation, which remains one of the shakiest in baseball.

Strangely enough, Konner Eaton scores well in projected value, even though he doesn’t have much prospect buzz.

Hope Is Mostly in the Lower Minors

Chase Dollander and Sean Sullivan offer the most hope for the rotation. Arms like Brody Brecht, JB Middleton, and Griffin Herring show flashes, but they’re too far off for 2026 to matter much.

A Bullpen Built on Tryouts and Patience

The bullpen isn’t exciting, but it grades out a bit above replacement level overall. ZiPS likes Victor Vodnik most, with some upside from Juan Mejia, Brennan Bernardino, and Jaden Hill.

Expect the Rockies to treat pitching like an open audition. Veterans such as Kyle Freeland will probably eat innings while the team cycles through younger, unproven arms.

A Painful Path, But a Clearer One

ZiPS doesn’t forecast a miracle in 2026 — far from it.

Another brutal season appears likely.

But for the first time in years, the projections hint at an organization finally willing to rebuild the right way.

If DePodesta’s data-driven approach takes hold, today’s bleak outlook could become the foundation for something more sustainable.

 
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