2026 ZiPS Projections: Tampa Bay Rays Outlook and Key Players

ZiPS just dropped its projection for the Tampa Bay Rays’ 2026 season. The results? Well, it’s a competitive but flawed group fighting to keep up in the brutal American League East.

Tampa Bay still knows how to squeeze value from its roster. But if you’re hoping for a smooth ride, the forecasts hint that the Rays will need some luck to really contend.

ZiPS Sees the Rays Treading Water in the AL East

Here’s the headline: ZiPS has the Rays finishing right around .500, maybe a few wins above or below. Not exactly a ticket to October, especially in a division full of heavyweights.

These models don’t predict disaster for the Rays, but they’re not calling them a playoff lock either. Instead, ZiPS thinks Tampa Bay can stay respectable, just not deep enough to overwhelm opponents night after night.

An Offense Leaning on a Few Key Bats

ZiPS isn’t in love with the Rays’ lineup depth. The team leans hard on Yandy Díaz to carry the offense again, and really needs Junior Caminero to make a big leap in power at just 22.

Elsewhere, there are some red flags. Jonathan Aranda probably won’t keep up his wild .409 BABIP, but ZiPS still thinks he can handle first base. The system isn’t sold on Cedric Mullins or Josh Lowe as steady outfield bats, and the catching group led by Nick Fortes looks pretty average.

Prospects and Positional Depth Bring Limited Immediate Relief

Tampa Bay always bets on young talent, and that’s still true in 2026. But ZiPS doesn’t expect a breakout from most of the position-player prospects this time around.

Xavier Isaac shows up as an interesting name, though his projection doesn’t really pop yet. With some recent injuries still lingering, the model figures the Rays might not get their usual extra value from depth pieces.

A Rotation That Depends on Health

The rotation, as usual, looks like the team’s backbone. ZiPS feels pretty good—assuming health—about Shane McClanahan coming back strong, putting him in a solid top three with Drew Rasmussen and Ryan Pepiot.

Steven Matz adds some flexibility, whether as depth or a swingman. Joe Boyle and Ian Seymour project as roughly league-average. Beyond that, though, the pitching prospect pool for emergencies looks thin. If injuries pile up, things could get dicey fast.

Mixed Signals from the Bullpen

The bullpen’s a mixed bag, according to ZiPS. Some arms get a thumbs up, others not so much.

ZiPS likes:

But the model isn’t as high on Edwin Uceta or the lower-leverage guys. Late-inning depth could get a little shaky.

The Path to Contention Is Narrow

Tampa Bay’s cost-conscious mindset has stuck around for years. It really limits how much the team can patch up holes in free agency.

So, the 2026 Rays will probably lean on those tiny advantages, clever matchup moves, and, yeah, maybe a little luck.

ZiPS sees the Rays as solid but definitely not perfect. They could sneak into a wild-card spot if a few things break their way.

But honestly, in the AL East, just being decent is risky—even for Tampa Bay, which always seems to find a way.

 
Here is the source article for this story: 2026 ZiPS Projections: Tampa Bay Rays