Dan Wilson’s Bazardo vs. Springer Decision Reveals Optimal Reliever Usage

Postseason baseball is often decided by razor-thin margins and split-second strategic decisions. In Game 7 of the ALCS, Seattle Mariners manager Dan Wilson let reliever Eduard Bazardo face George Springer for a third time. Springer crushed a decisive home run.

This moment reignited a long-running debate in October baseball. Should managers trust favorable pitcher-hitter matchups, or worry more about the dangers of familiarity?

With the postseason spotlight magnifying every move, bullpen management becomes an art form. In 2024, the way teams handle it seems to be evolving faster than ever.

The Critical Decision in Game 7

Dan Wilson had a tough call late in the game. Should he stick with Bazardo, who’d dominated right-handed hitters all postseason, or bring in closer Andrés Muñoz, who hadn’t faced Springer in the series?

Conventional wisdom warns against letting a hitter see the same pitcher three times, especially in October. The stakes make every tiny edge feel massive.

The “Third-Time” Danger

Historical postseason data paints a clear picture. When a batter faces a reliever for the third time in a series, their OPS typically jumps by more than 140 points.

This “familiarity effect” isn’t just about pitcher fatigue. It’s more about hitters getting comfortable with a pitcher’s tendencies, release point, and pitch movement.

In a season loaded with analytical breakthroughs, ignoring this uptick feels like tempting fate.

Contrasting Managerial Philosophies

The Mariners’ approach this postseason let 25 pitcher-hitter matchups reach three or more plate appearances. The Toronto Blue Jays kept that number to just 10.

Seattle’s model leans on trusting a pitcher’s proven splits. Toronto’s management prefers mixing arms to keep hitters guessing.

Lessons from John Schneider’s Gamble

Earlier in the ALCS, Blue Jays manager John Schneider made a high-leverage move, going with a lefty against Seattle’s Cal Raleigh. That one backfired—sometimes even the best-laid plans unravel.

Still, the Jays’ overall bullpen strategy—using a wide variety of relievers with different pitch types—has mostly paid off. They’ve managed to neutralize hitters before familiarity creeps in.

The Science Behind the Familiarity Effect

Research into the phenomenon points to hitters collecting valuable mental data over multiple encounters. They start anticipating breaking balls, timing fastballs better, and picking up on sequencing clues.

Interestingly, the impact of familiarity seems to have dipped in recent years. Maybe it’s because pitchers are expanding their arsenals and using advanced scouting to disguise their tendencies.

Why the Effect May Be Weakening

Teams now rotate pitchers more aggressively, making it tough for hitters to lock onto one arm. Relievers add new pitches midseason, change tempos, and tweak movement to stay unpredictable.

This evolving approach shows how strategy has shifted. It’s not just about counting matchups anymore—it’s about dynamically disrupting hitter expectations.

Looking Ahead to the World Series

As the World Series looms, two bullpen models stand out:

• Minimal Exposure Model: Used by the Blue Jays—limit repeat matchups, rotate arms early, and force hitters to adapt to constant change.
• Variety-First Model: Popular with the Dodgers—maximize pitch diversity while still letting trusted relievers work longer to exploit favorable splits.

Who Has the October Edge?

The Dodgers’ model bets on the quality of their arms. They attack hitters’ weaknesses, no matter how many times those hitters have seen them.

The Blue Jays, on the other hand, lean into unpredictability as a weapon. They keep hitters from settling into any one pitcher’s rhythm.

Both philosophies have worked this postseason. But October’s biggest games? They’ll always come down to execution—and maybe the guts to make, or avoid, that third-time-around gamble.

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