Twins Outlook: Projections, New Additions and First-Base Options

The Minnesota Twins head into the 2026 season, once again teetering between hope and history. FanGraphs projects an 82-80 finish—a 12-win jump from last year’s 70-92 letdown.

But recent trends say fans should be cautious. For five straight seasons, projection systems have overestimated the Twins’ performance, and team president Derek Falvey knows optimism in February means nothing by September.

With only modest offseason moves and lingering roster holes, especially at first base, the Twins’ path back to contention looks anything but simple.

FanGraphs’ 2026 Twins Projection: Progress, With an Asterisk

On paper, FanGraphs sees the Twins trending upward. An 82-80 record isn’t exactly thrilling, but it’s a step up from a 70-92 season that exposed plenty of flaws.

A 12-win improvement usually puts a team on the playoff fringe, especially in today’s balanced league. Still, projections only reassure as much as their track record allows, and in Minnesota’s case, that’s wobbly at best.

Over the last five years, FanGraphs has missed the Twins’ final win total by an average of 6.4 games, usually overshooting. That kind of persistent optimism makes any positive forecast feel more like a suggestion than a promise.

Why Twins Projections Keep Overshooting Reality

The gap between projected and actual wins really comes down to roster fragility. Injuries, slumping veterans, and thin depth have taken “respectable projections” and turned them into mediocrity.

Even when models from Baseball Prospectus or betting markets like BetMGM lean positive, they can’t quite capture how fast things unravel when a few key Twins go down.

Falvey has admitted the challenge of building around projections. The front office studies the numbers, but there’s a growing sense that projections are more like a weather forecast—helpful, sure, but nothing you’d bet your house on.

New Faces, Modest Expectations: Jackson, Kreidler, and Orze

The Twins’ offseason felt quiet. With a tight budget, they made subtle moves instead of big splashes.

Three names—Alex Jackson, Ryan Kreidler, and Eric Orze—are their main bets to patch roster holes.

Alex Jackson: Defense-First Insurance Behind the Plate

Jackson comes in as your classic backup catcher: good glove, some raw power, and not much with the bat. Projection systems peg him as a defense-first option who can manage pitchers, control the running game, and maybe sneak in an extra-base hit here and there.

Nobody expects Jackson to provide much offense. For the Twins, that’s probably fine—catcher is one spot where defense and game-calling matter more than a hot bat.

Jackson’s value will show up in how he handles the staff over 60–70 games, not in his OPS.

Ryan Kreidler: Versatility Without the Bat—Yet

Kreidler brings something every manager wants: defensive versatility. He can cover multiple infield spots and gives the Twins options when injuries or matchups force them to shuffle the lineup.

Unfortunately, his bat hasn’t caught up. Models don’t see Kreidler breaking out at the plate in 2026.

He’s a utility glove—useful, sure, but not a game-changer. On a deep roster, he’s a nice piece. On a thin one, he just reminds you how much work is left.

Eric Orze: A Quiet but Important Bullpen Upgrade

Orze might end up the most important of the trio. Projections put him as the Twins’ fourth-best reliever, which is a sneaky big deal for a bullpen that’s been overworked and underwhelming for years.

He misses bats and can handle leverage spots. That’s exactly what this club needs between the starter and the closer.

Relievers are always a gamble, but if Orze just meets expectations, Minnesota’s bullpen gets a real boost. Sometimes, that’s enough to swing a few games over a long season.

The First Base Problem: Kody Clemens and the Search for an Upgrade

All these incremental upgrades can’t hide the glaring issue at first base. Right now, Kody Clemens leads the depth chart. He’s got some positional flexibility and occasional power, but his overall profile screams stopgap, not solution.

Why First Base Is the Twins’ Biggest Red Flag

First base is supposed to be a run-producing spot. Plugging it with fringe bats leaves a lot on the table.

The Twins’ internal options just don’t project to deliver the steady, middle-of-the-order punch that real contenders need.

That’s why a name like Nathaniel Lowe stands out. Non-tendered despite a solid track record, Lowe is exactly the kind of low-cost, high-value play a team like Minnesota can’t ignore:

If the Twins want to close the gap between projection and reality, first base is where they should start.

Cautious Optimism and the Road to 82 Wins

The 2026 Twins are a study in tempered expectation. Projection systems see improvement, and the front office has made smart, if unspectacular, additions.

But those same issues—shaky depth, questionable offensive punch at key positions, and a history of falling short—still hang around. It’s tough to shake the feeling that something’s always lurking in the background.

For Minnesota, the offseason isn’t about chasing headlines. They’re just looking for value, plain and simple.

If Falvey and company can add a bat or two—especially at first base—and if the bullpen holds up, maybe that 82-80 projection finally means something real. But right now, the Twins seem stuck between what the models promise and the reality of their recent struggles.

 
Here is the source article for this story: Minnesota Twins notes: Early projections, new additions, gut feelings and first-base options