2025-26 MLB Free Agents: Three to Target, Three to Avoid

This piece breaks down MLB insider Kiley McDaniel’s evaluation of the 2025-26 free-agent class, with a focus on what executives really want every winter: return on investment.

We’ll dig into which pitchers and position players look like smart buys, which big names could turn into financial traps, and why front offices should chase upside and durability over reputation this offseason.

Free-Agent Strategy: Chasing Value, Not Headlines

McDaniel doesn’t care who was a star three years ago or who sells the most jerseys. He cares about what front offices can expect in 2026 and beyond, compared to what they’ll pay.

That means weighing projected WAR, age, health, and the underlying numbers against the size and length of each deal. When you look at it this way, a pattern pops up.

Younger or mid-prime arms with upside are worth aggressive offers. On the flip side, aging veterans with injuries and declining skills are land mines, no matter how famous they are.

Michael King: Injured in 2025, Still a Premium Multi-Year Play

McDaniel singles out Michael King as one of the best multi-year investments on the market, even after his 2025 season went sideways with injuries. That’s all about what King was before things unraveled—a versatile righty with a legit top-of-the-rotation arsenal and a breakout that hinted at real staying power.

If teams can look past the recent lost time, they might get:

In a market that often overpays just for innings, King brings a rare mix of upside and track record that makes a multi-year bet feel justified.

Brad Keller: Velocity Spike Makes Him a Smart Risk

Brad Keller lands in the same “buy” category, but for different reasons. After some uneven years, Keller changed his profile in 2025, showing a clear velocity jump and thriving in a setup role.

That new gear put his starter upside back on the table. McDaniel sees a projected two-year, $22 million deal as the right kind of gamble.

You’re paying for a mid-rotation arm who might still have another level:

For analytical front offices, Keller is the classic “buy low on the new version” move—not the guy he used to be.

High-Upside Position Players: Targeting Short-Term Flexibility

On the position-player side, McDaniel’s advice gets a bit more nuanced. He likes shorter deals with upside, especially for players coming off injuries but with flashes of star potential on their resume.

Ha-Seong Kim: One-Year Gamble with Significant Upside

Ha-Seong Kim fits that description perfectly. After shoulder surgery and nagging issues that limited his 2025, Kim’s projected at a one-year, $16 million deal—a price McDaniel calls a smart short-term gamble.

If Kim’s health holds up, a team could get:

For contenders, Kim brings upside, flexibility, and almost no long-term downside.

Veteran Traps: Big Names, Bigger Red Flags

McDaniel’s caution list is full of players whose reputations are better than what they’ll actually do going forward. The pattern: age, declining tools, and injury history that make their contracts likely to be burdens rather than bargains.

Eugenio Suárez: Power, But Little Else at 34

Eugenio Suárez, projected to get around $45 million, is a prime case. The power is still there, but his defense at third has slipped, and his offense is now mostly slugging—without enough contact or on-base skill to soften the blow of aging.

With third-base defense and contact at a premium, teams end up paying for past home runs, not future value.

J.T. Realmuto and the Aging Catcher Problem

J.T. Realmuto, at 34 and projected for $32 million over two years, used to be a no-brainer. But the signs of decline are tough to miss now:

Catcher aging curves are brutal, and McDaniel sees Realmuto as a risky commitment if you’re hoping for his old self behind the plate or at bat.

Marcell Ozuna: DH-Only with Health Concerns

Marcell Ozuna, 35 and stuck at DH, is another name McDaniel says to approach with caution. A big mid-season drop in 2025, plus ongoing hip issues, take the shine off his power bat.

With no defensive value and real health worries, Ozuna’s got a thin margin—if the bat slips, the contract becomes dead weight.

Harrison Bader and Zach Eflin: Misleading Surface Numbers

Harrison Bader showed a big WAR jump in 2025, but McDaniel warns that’s misleading. The offensive surge isn’t backed up by the underlying numbers, and his defense isn’t what it used to be.

That adds up to a market price that’s just too high for what he’s likely to deliver. Zach Eflin, on a one-year $8.5 million projection, looks like a value at first.

But McDaniel calls him a risky bounce-back bet:

For teams chasing reliability, Eflin feels more like a lottery ticket than a sure thing.

Bottom Line: Invest in Upside, Not Nostalgia

McDaniel’s 2025-26 free-agent roadmap feels pretty clear to me. He wants to push chips in on arms like Michael King and Brad Keller.

There’s also a smart short-term swing to take on Ha-Seong Kim. But when it comes to older names—Suárez, Realmuto, Ozuna, Bader, and Eflin—I’d tread carefully.

Those guys probably had their best days already. It’s tempting to chase nostalgia, but chasing upside just makes more sense now.

 
Here is the source article for this story: Three MLB free agents to invest in — and three to avoid