2021 MLB Draft Winners and Losers: Full Analysis and Grades

The 2021 MLB Draft feels distant enough now that we can finally judge it with some perspective. Prospects have either made it to the majors, stalled out, or shown us what their ceilings really are.

We’ve seen enough seasons and results to pick apart what worked and what didn’t. Some organizations look like clear winners, others have little to show, and a few are still just crossing their fingers.

Standout Winners from the 2021 MLB Draft

Every draft gives a few teams a shot at long-term success. In 2021, a handful of clubs really nailed both top-tier talent and overall depth.

San Diego Padres Set the Gold Standard

The San Diego Padres stand out as the biggest winners. First-rounder Jackson Merrill quickly became a cornerstone, and second-round pick James Wood turned out to be a steal.

San Diego’s class already features eight big leaguers. They’ve racked up an impressive 22.1 combined actual-plus-projected WAR through 2026.

That mix of upside and sheer quantity? It’s changed the franchise’s outlook in a huge way.

Cleveland Guardians Reap Rewards from Pitching Focus

The Cleveland Guardians doubled down on pitching, and honestly, it worked. Gavin Williams and Tanner Bibee now anchor Cleveland’s rotation, proving the team’s pitching development pipeline is no fluke.

Lefty Doug Nikhazy and a few others are close to the majors, and Cleveland’s 2021 class could keep paying off for years.

High-Value Draft Classes That Delivered

Other teams walked away with strong hauls, even if they didn’t quite match San Diego.

Reds, Mariners, and Braves Find Core Pieces

The Cincinnati Reds squeezed out real value. Second-rounder Andrew Abbott became a rotation mainstay, and first-round pick Matt McLain made an impact before injuries slowed him down.

Measured by bWAR, Cincinnati’s class is among the most productive in the league.

The Seattle Mariners have already graduated four players from this draft. Pitchers Bryan Woo and Bryce Miller look like some of the best arms of the class, and catcher Harry Ford still has everyday potential.

The Atlanta Braves leaned on versatility and pitching. Spencer Schwellenbach led the way, and both A.J. Smith-Shawver and Caleb Durbin chipped in with depth and upside.

Honorable Mentions with Useful Returns

Not every good draft needs stars. Some teams just found important role players.

Quiet Success Stories

A few clubs deserve a nod for finding usable talent:

Biggest Disappointments of the Draft

Some teams just didn’t get it done. Their draft classes produced little on-field value compared to where they picked.

Teams That Missed the Mark

The Chicago Cubs, Philadelphia Phillies, and Miami Marlins each managed to get just one big leaguer from the class. For Chicago, Jordan Wicks reached the majors, but there’s not much else to brag about—only James Triantos sticks out as a possible future piece, and that’s a stretch.

The Los Angeles Angels somehow ended up in an even tougher spot. They picked high, but top choice Sam Bachman turned into a below-average reliever, and honestly, the rest of the group doesn’t bring much hope.

Toronto leaned hard on pitchers, but that approach didn’t really pay off. Outside of Gunnar Hoglund and situational guy Matt Svanson, they didn’t get much. Ricky Tiedemann still feels like a question mark—injuries have really thrown his development off course.

The New York Mets might’ve shot themselves in the foot more than anyone. They didn’t sign Kumar Rocker, and the rest of their picks barely scraped the majors. For a team picking mid-round, that’s just rough.

 
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