2026 ZiPS Projections: St. Louis Cardinals Roster Outlook and Forecast

The St. Louis Cardinals head into 2026 with an all-too-familiar story. They’re competitive enough to stay in the mix, but just don’t have the star power to push past the National League’s best.

ZiPS projections say this year’s Cardinals look a lot like the recent versions—steady, professional, and, well, pretty average. There’s enough youth and depth to keep fans interested, but the ceiling doesn’t seem much higher than before.

ZiPS Sees Another .500 Season on the Horizon

For the 22nd straight year, ZiPS calls the Cardinals an essentially .500 team. That’s a testament to the club’s stability, but also a reminder of its limits right now.

The roster looks competent, not exactly electric. There’s not much short-term upside here, and not a lot of room for mistakes.

ZiPS doesn’t predict a collapse, but it’s tough to see a clear path to real contention in 2026. The team is built on versatility and depth, not headline-grabbing stars. That limits how far they can go unless someone really surprises us.

Masyn Winn Stands Alone as a True Breakout Candidate

When it comes to star potential, ZiPS only sees Masyn Winn as a true breakout guy. His defense, athleticism, and improving bat make him the one player with a shot at a 4-WAR season. The rest? Solid, but not game-changers.

A Balanced Lineup with One Obvious Weak Spot

The Cardinals’ offense looks fine at most spots, but right field sticks out as a problem. Everywhere else, flexibility holds things together, with several players able to move around as needed.

Versatility Defines the Infield and Outfield Mix

Brendan Donovan, Nolan Gorman, and JJ Wetherholt give manager Oliver Marmol plenty of ways to mix up the lineup. ZiPS actually likes Wetherholt a lot, pegging him as an instant upgrade over Nolan Arenado—which is a pretty big statement considering Arenado’s reputation.

Lars Nootbaar is expected to bounce back from a rough 2025, though he still struggles against lefties. Victor Scott II sticks around because of his defense, even if his hitting hasn’t caught up yet.

Catching Depth Offers Quiet Optimism

The catching situation is sneakily deep. If Iván Herrera gets back to regular catching, ZiPS sees some upside. Pedro Pagés looks like a solid, if unspectacular, starter behind the plate.

Long-Term Options Worth Watching

There are a few prospects worth keeping an eye on: Jimmy Crooks and Leonardo Bernal. ZiPS thinks both could turn into solid long-term options, even if neither projects as a star. Still, there’s some comfort in having that kind of depth at catcher.

A Deep but Uninspiring Rotation

The rotation might actually be the most intriguing part of the team, though not necessarily the strongest. ZiPS rates the starting staff as league average, with a bunch of arms all lumped together in the same range.

Young Arms Provide Hope, Not Certainty

Michael McGreevy tops the group with the best projected ERA. Youngsters like Quinn Mathews, Tink Hence, Hunter Dobbins, Ixan Henderson, and even Liam Doyle (based on his college numbers) bring some hope for the future.

Realistically, some of these guys might be more helpful out of the bullpen, at least for now.

A Bullpen That Could Be a Liability

ZiPS isn’t high on the bullpen, calling it below average overall. Only a few relievers really inspire any confidence:

If things don’t improve, late innings could once again be the team’s undoing.

Competitive, Credible, and Capped

ZiPS lays out what the 2026 Cardinals might look like. It highlights their positional competence, organizational depth, and developing pitching.

That mix probably keeps St. Louis in the hunt for most of the season. Still, calling them a real contender feels like a stretch.

Honestly, the real shot at something special depends on player development. If a couple young guys step up, maybe the Cardinals finally break through.

But for now, it’s more of the same: professionalism, respectability, and just enough hope to keep fans curious about what’s next.

 
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