This article dives into the latest FanGraphs Steamer projections for the 2026 MLB season. It explores how several of baseball’s biggest stars could be on the verge of historic achievements.
From generational hitters to dominant pitchers, the numbers suggest that records — both modern and century-old — may be challenged if projections meet reality.
Steamer Projections Hint at a Historic 2026 MLB Season
Projection systems aren’t crystal balls, but Steamer’s got a knack for spotting trends before they hit the mainstream. The 2026 outlook shows a league shaped by superstar consistency and two-way brilliance.
Some players aren’t just projected to perform well; they’re lined up to do things that would land them in elite historical company. Honestly, it’s wild to see how many of these names could end up in the record books.
Juan Soto’s On-Base Excellence Reaches Rare Air
Juan Soto keeps redefining offensive value. Steamer puts him at a .413 on-base percentage, with 34 home runs and 117 walks.
If he hits those marks, Soto will have nine straight seasons with at least a .395 OBP. That kind of plate discipline and power just doesn’t come around every day.
He’d also notch his sixth season with at least 25 homers and 115 walks. At this point, he’s one of the most complete hitters of his generation.
Shohei Ohtani Remains in a Class of His Own
Shohei Ohtani is projected to slug 43 home runs while striking out 136 batters on the mound. If he gets there, it’ll be his third season with at least 40 homers and 100 pitching strikeouts.
No one else in MLB history has pulled that off even once. Ohtani just keeps making the impossible look almost normal.
Young Aces Poised to Rewrite Pitching History
The projections hint that 2026 could really belong to the young arms. Two names, in particular, stand out.
Paul Skenes’ Rapid Rise Continues
Paul Skenes is forecast to lead the National League with a 2.92 ERA and 237 strikeouts. If he does, he’ll be the youngest pitcher since 1913 to lead his league in ERA in back-to-back seasons.
He’d join a tiny group of pitchers to lead in both ERA and strikeouts at such a young age. That’s the mark of a true ace, no doubt.
Tarik Skubal’s Triple Crown Chase
Tarik Skubal is projected for a 2.81 ERA, 242 strikeouts, and a share of the MLB lead in wins. That mix puts him squarely in the running for a rare pitching Triple Crown.
If he leads his league in ERA for a third straight year, Skubal joins an exclusive club. That takes both dominance and serious durability.
Power, Speed, and Unique Milestones
No one’s projected for a true 30-30 season, but several stars are pretty close to some rare combos.
Judge, Schwarber, and the Home Run Race
Aaron Judge is projected to tie for the MLB lead in home runs. He could notch 45 homers for the fifth time if things break his way, which would just add to his case as the era’s defining power hitter.
Kyle Schwarber, projected for 40 home runs, is getting close to Babe Ruth-level territory for home runs in a player’s first five seasons with one team. That’s elite company, any way you slice it.
Speed-Power Threats and a Catcher’s Feat
Players projected for at least 25 homers and 30 steals include:
RamÃrez and Carroll actually have a real shot at back-to-back 30-30 seasons. That’s not something you see every year.
Meanwhile, Cal Raleigh is projected for 38 home runs—the highest Steamer’s called for a catcher since 2012. A fourth 30-homer season would put him among the most powerful catchers in MLB history.
Luis Arraez and a Batting Title First
Luis Arraez is projected to lead MLB with a .305 batting average. If he signs with a new club and picks up another batting title, he’d become the first player ever to win batting crowns with four different teams.
He’s already snagged three consecutive titles with three separate clubs. Arraez keeps building one of the most unique hitting résumés baseball fans have ever seen.
Here is the source article for this story: These 11 players are projected to make MLB history in 2026
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