FanGraphs’ pre–spring training 2026 power rankings try to make sense of a pretty dense projection system, turning numbers into a league-wide story. They’re not just guessing win totals—they’re also forecasting playoff odds and projected WAR, all through a tweaked Elo system that leans on Depth Charts projections (which blend 2026 Steamer and ZiPS).
This post digs into what that methodology means for each tier of teams. It also highlights the moves fueling early optimism or caution and glances ahead to spring training, where these projections will get their first real test.
Dodgers Lead the Pack in FanGraphs’ 2026 Power Rankings
The Los Angeles Dodgers sit at the top, projected for a 100–62 record and a hefty 1558 Elo. Their offseason brought in veterans like Edwin Díaz and Kyle Tucker, adding even more firepower to a roster already built for October.
This mix of old and new talent just cements why L.A. is the team everyone’s chasing as spring camps get going.
Right behind them, two franchises keep hanging around the top thanks to steady contention and some recent upgrades. The Dodgers’ dominance sets the pace, but the Braves and Mets look ready for strong campaigns and real playoff pushes.
Top Tier: Braves and Mets
Atlanta Braves: They’re projected to go 91–71. The bullpen’s deeper, but durability will matter—a quick injury to Ha-Seong Kim already complicates depth and rotation plans.
New York Mets: Projected at 89–73, the Mets lost Pete Alonso and Edwin Díaz but brought in Devin Williams, Jorge Polanco, Bo Bichette, Freddy Peralta, and Luis Robert Jr. Their roster shuffle is complicated but meant to keep the core championship-worthy.
A Contender Group Beyond the Big Two
There’s a solid group just below the top, full of established winners and some hopeful sleepers. These teams keep making moves that show they’re not backing down in 2026, even as the league’s balance keeps shifting.
Seattle Mariners: The Mariners added Brendan Donovan, aiming to boost both their lineup and bench. It’s a clear sign they’re serious about staying in the AL mix.
Philadelphia Phillies: Philly kept some veterans and signed Adolis García, trying to blend experience with new pop. They want to keep that playoff window wide open in the NL.
Detroit Tigers: Signing Framber Valdez shows Detroit’s focused on steadying the rotation. A strong starting staff can really swing things late in the season.
Chicago Cubs: The Cubs overhauled both pitching and the lineup, showing they’re not afraid to move pieces around for a tougher, more reliable roster in a crowded NL.
AL East Drama and Broad League Parity
The AL East might be the wildest division this year. The Yankees, Blue Jays, Red Sox, and Orioles are all bunched within two projected wins. FanGraphs points out that free agency and in-season surprises drive this closeness. Every club is juggling risk, upside, and hoping for some internal growth.
New York Yankees: The Yankees stayed pretty quiet in free agency, betting on their own guys and some cost-controlled depth instead of chasing big names.
Toronto Blue Jays: They added Dylan Cease and some depth, clearly trying to get back that ace-level stability. The bullpen’s deeper, and the lineup shouldn’t have many holes.
Boston Red Sox: Boston improved their pitching, but didn’t land a big-name infielder like Bregman. There’s still some uncertainty about how high the infield can go.
Baltimore Orioles: The Orioles made a statement by adding Pete Alonso, but their rotation still has real injury questions. If they stay healthy, things could get interesting fast.
Wild Card Sleepers and Mid-Range Rebuilders
The “Wild Card hopefuls” tier covers the Brewers, Giants, Pirates, Astros, Diamondbacks, and Royals. These teams are retooling, trying to punch above their weight and catch some late-season magic.
Milwaukee, for example, faces a tough road after trading Freddy Peralta. Their hopes really hinge on Brandon Woodruff staying healthy and looking like his old self.
Honestly, the line between contending and rebuilding feels razor-thin for these clubs. A lucky break or a hot streak could flip the script before spring training even wraps up.
Takeaways: What These Rankings Mean for Spring Training
FanGraphs leans on depth charts, Steamer, ZiPS, and Elo to try to measure team strength. But let’s be real—a good roster on paper never guarantees a playoff run.
The power rankings show how roster moves, depth, and health shape expectations as spring training starts. The Dodgers look like the favorites, but the gap between the top teams is pretty slim. Sleepers are lurking, and honestly, anything could happen by Opening Day.
Here is the source article for this story: FanGraphs Power Rankings: Spring Training 2026 (No. 1–17)
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