ADP Risers and Fallers 2026: Matt McLain, Kevin McGonigle

Opening Day’s just two weeks out, and fantasy managers are scrambling to adjust their boards as spring training shakes up ADP. NFBC data is full of surprises—some players are rocketing up, others are falling, and everyone’s reacting to injuries, hot streaks, and those new rules that push teams to promote prospects faster.

This article takes a look at who’s moving on the draft boards and what’s behind the shifts. If you’re trying to tweak your approach before the season starts, this is for you.

Market Movers Ahead of Opening Day

Spring stats, health updates, and service-time incentives are shaking up the NFBC top 250. Both hitters and relievers are jumping or dropping in ADP right now.

The market’s correcting for some underwhelming 2025 names, and everyone seems to want more certainty in bullpen roles. Teams want that early-season production, and fantasy managers are reacting fast.

Hitters rising into the top 150

• Matt McLain is suddenly inside the top 150 after tearing it up this spring. He was way outside the top 200, but people are buying in thanks to promising 2023 metrics that suggest a breakout, even though his 2025 numbers were rough.
• Kevin McGonigle (Tigers) has been crushing it in camp—.304/.448/.609 with some eye-popping exit velocities. He’s pushing for Opening Day at shortstop, and those new promotion-incentive rules make it easier for Detroit to call him up right away.

Relievers rising as teams chase saves

• Griffin Jax keeps climbing in ADP since Edwin Uceta’s likely IL stint leaves the closer job wide open. He’s one of several relievers getting a bump, as managers scramble for those precious saves in a crowded bullpen scene.

Notable fallers and risk signals

• Hunter Greene is dropping hard after elbow bone spurs landed him on the surgery list. He’s probably out until June, so now he’s just an IL stash for most drafters.
• Colson Montgomery has slipped after posting a spring strikeout rate over 30%. The risk is real, even with his power and glove upside for 2025.
• Marcus Semien’s rough spring—sub-.200 average, nearly 30% K rate—has tanked his ADP, and people are nervous after some recent down years.
• Injuries are dragging down other vets like Ivan Herrera, Jeremy Peña, Brandon Lowe, and Kyle Teel. Meanwhile, a few relievers and high-upside kids are sneaking up the board.

Prospects, Incentives and the Draft Landscape

Those new promotion-incentive rules are pushing teams to bring up top prospects sooner, which makes their draft stock jump even before Opening Day. Look at Kevin McGonigle—he’s got the camp numbers and the exit velocity, and the Tigers are seriously considering him for shortstop right out of the gate.

Implications for rookie-ready players

• Prospects who put up strong spring lines and have a clear shot at regular at-bats can see their draft value spike fast, even if they’re light on big-league experience.
• Teams with potential promotions on deck might make those calls earlier, which means fantasy managers are willing to pay up for anyone with a direct path to playing time.

What this means for your fantasy draft

The ADP shifts push managers to find a balance between certainty and upside. Grabbing players with steady roles and strong spring performances can keep your roster on track.

Chasing high-upside prospects with obvious promotion paths? That can pay off big if they land a spot early.

• Keep an eye on injury timelines, especially for players like Hunter Greene. His early-season value really depends on when he returns, not just on the numbers.
• Watch for bullpen clarity. If relievers like Griffin Jax get a clear shot at closing, you might snag some meaningful saves without waiting for a trade rumor to break.
• Consider service-time incentives. These rules can speed up callups and shift the risk for prospects who seemed far off just weeks ago.

 
Here is the source article for this story: ADP Risers and Fallers for 2026 Fantasy Baseball: Matt McLain and Kevin McGonigle turning heads