Best Team Fits for Munetaka Murakami in 2026

Munetaka Murakami looks ready to leap from NPB stardom to Major League Baseball. Front offices across MLB are scrambling, trying to decide if his rare power outweighs the real questions about his swing-and-miss tendencies and defensive home.

With the posting window closing on December 22, the 26-year-old slugger has become one of the most fascinating — and polarizing — free agents of this offseason.

Munetaka Murakami’s Power: A Once-in-a-Decade Bat

When executives talk about Murakami, the conversation always starts with one thing: elite, game-changing power. He’s not just another power bat coming over from Japan — he’s been putting up numbers that would raise eyebrows in any league in the world.

Historic Home Run Production in NPB

At age 22, Murakami launched 56 home runs, a staggering figure that instantly put him on the global radar. This wasn’t a one-year blip either.

He’s consistently lived in the 31–39 homer range over multiple seasons, showing his power is both real and repeatable. Even in an injury-shortened season this year, limited to just 69 games, he slashed .286/.392/.659 with 24 home runs.

Project that out over a full MLB season and you’re talking about a pace of roughly 55–60 homers — the kind of production that immediately puts him in the middle of any lineup in baseball.

Scouting the Swing: Elite Power, Real Risk

Scouts don’t hesitate when discussing Murakami’s raw strength. The conversations around risk only start once they move from power to contact and approach.

Comparisons to Schwarber and Ohtani

Evaluators often reach for big names when describing him. Murakami’s left-handed thunder has been compared to a hybrid of Kyle Schwarber and Shohei Ohtani from a raw power standpoint.

The ball explodes off his bat, and he can leave the yard to all fields. But with that violence comes volatility.

His strikeout rate has hovered around 26% in NPB and has recently ticked up closer to 30%. That’s before he’s seen a steady diet of MLB velocity, spin, and sequencing.

Teams are realistically projecting that number to climb even higher against big league pitching, and that’s where the risk enters the equation.

Strikeouts, Approach, and MLB Transition

Power with strikeouts isn’t a dealbreaker in today’s game, but it demands careful evaluation. Clubs have to decide whether Murakami’s approach will hold up against premium arms.

Can His Bat Control Handle MLB Pitching?

The question front offices are asking is not whether he hits the ball hard — that’s already answered — but whether he makes enough contact to let his power play.

Key concerns include:

If Murakami maintains even a modestly manageable strikeout rate, his power alone can make him a star-level offensive player.

If the whiffs spike dramatically, the profile becomes much more volatile.

Defensive Future: Third Base to First Base

While Murakami has spent most of his career at third base in Japan, few MLB evaluators are convinced he’ll stay there for long. His glove is not what’s driving his value.

Likely Move Across the Diamond

The general expectation is that Murakami will shift to first base at some point during his MLB career. Concerns about lateral quickness, range, and overall defensive impact at third push most projections toward a corner infield role, where his bat will need to carry the profile.

That defensive limitation matters in contract discussions. A slugging first baseman must hit at a star level to justify a massive deal; there’s less margin for error than there would be with a plus defender at a premium position.

Contract Expectations and Market Value

Murakami’s age and ceiling make him particularly unusual on the open market. Most free agents hit their prime after they’ve been paid; he’s just entering his.

A Prime-Age Bet with Opt-Out Upside

The industry expectation is a contract in the neighborhood of eight years and $180 million. That figure reflects both his massive upside and the inherent risk tied to his contact issues and defensive future.

Teams also anticipate that the deal may include opt-out clauses, allowing Murakami to re-enter free agency if he thrives early in MLB. Those opt-outs protect the player’s upside while putting more pressure on the club to be right in its evaluation.

Why Murakami Is One of This Offseason’s Most Intriguing Free Agents

Murakami’s market really comes down to two big questions for every team: Can he actually make enough contact? And where does he end up playing defensively as his career goes on?

If a club buys into his bat-to-ball skills and thinks he’ll fit somewhere in the field, they’ll probably see him as a middle-of-the-order guy for years to come.

But for some teams, the swing-and-miss stuff and the idea that he’s probably headed for first base will slow things down.

That push and pull—elite power, but real questions—makes Munetaka Murakami easily one of the most fascinating free agents out there this offseason.

 
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