Buster Olney’s Top First Basemen: Where Does Nick Kurtz Rank?

This ESPN spring-training piece breaks down Buster Olney’s top-10 projections for the 2026 season at first base. He ranks players by who’s set to make the biggest impact this year.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. leads after a wild postseason burst. The list blends proven veterans with breakout talents, weighing defense, durability, and readiness for new roles in 2026.

Understanding Olney’s 2026 First Basemen Rankings

Spring training always brings a new look at first base. There’s a balance between raw power, consistency, and staying healthy.

Olney spotlights players who hit hard, field well, and keep showing up. Teams now think more about resting workloads and how managers use versatile players.

The top names all have MVP-level upside. There’s a mix of aging stars and young sluggers itching for bigger roles in 2026.

Top-10 Breakdown

• 1. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. — postseason surge: eight homers in 18 games has him right in the MVP conversation with the sport’s heavyweights.
• 2. Matt Olson — power on steady display with strong defensive numbers (17 DRS). He’s on a Hall of Fame path and adjusting to a manager who rests players more often.
• 3. Nick Kurtz — breakout 2025 rookie year: 36 homers, 173 OPS+ in 117 games. He still needs to hit lefties better to really maximize his value.
• 4. Pete Alonso — now with the Orioles. He’s known for those annual 30-plus homer seasons and run production, though his defense gets questioned.
• 5. Freddie Freeman — aging, clutch MVP-caliber hitter for the Dodgers. He’s got a strong recent slash and could reach 3,000 hits if he stays healthy.
• 6. Bryce Harper — 2025 numbers (129 OPS+, .357 OBP) leave some wondering about his role at 33, but the talent’s still clear.
• 7. Josh Naylor — late-season and postseason surge earned him a five-year deal with the Mariners. He’s known for timely power and driving in runs.
• 8. Rafael Devers — moved to San Francisco; rocky 2025 but flashed elite power. He’s working to adapt at first base and could keep improving.
• 9. Michael Busch — 34 homers with favorable home/road splits. He’s a reminder of the depth in the pipeline and how ballparks can boost projections.
• 10. Vinnie Pasquantino — healthier 2025 season brought career highs: 66 extra-base hits and 113 RBIs. There’s real upside if he stays on the field.

Olney also nods to other first basemen who could step up. Roles might shift, platoons could pop up, or a streak of health could change everything during the grind of 162 games.

What Olney’s List Means for 2026 Fantasy and MLB Strategy

The rankings give teams and fantasy players a practical roadmap. Power bats who can field and adapt to new managers or positions get a clear edge here.

Durability stands out—teams want guys who can handle a long season with fewer off-days. Having players like Devers and Alonso at first base shows how much teams now value flexibility over the old-school corner-infield mold.

Notable near-misses and sleepers to monitor

• Aranda — could break out if he gets a clear role and enough chances.
• Ben Rice — young hitter, and if he keeps developing, he might earn regular at-bats.
• Willson Contreras — usually a catcher, but if he gets time at first base, that might bump up his fantasy value, especially for multi-positional teams.
• Jorge Polanco — if he crosses over to first base, that might mean more at-bats and maybe a power bump.
• Spencer Torkelson — brings big power; if he stays consistent at first, he could lock down a spot on this list.
• Andrew Vaughn — lefty bat, and honestly, his home park could give him a boost if things line up right.
• Christian Walker — he’s a durable veteran, and his power plus lineup spot keeps him relevant for both fantasy and real-world value.

Spring training keeps rolling, and Olney’s top-10 list gives us a snapshot of how teams might set up their rosters. It also gives fantasy players something to chew on if they’re looking for upside but don’t want to ignore durability.

Who do you think is the most undervalued first baseman here? And is there a true breakout pick for 2026 hiding in this group?

 
Here is the source article for this story: Buster Olney on MLB’s top first basemen: How high does Nick Kurtz rank?