Cal Raleigh Sets Record, Tightens AL MVP Race

The 2024 American League MVP race has become one of the wildest storylines in recent baseball memory. What started as a comfortable lead for Aaron Judge is now a tense, unpredictable battle, all thanks to Cal Raleigh’s ridiculous home run tear and overall impact.

With just over a month left, the race for baseball’s top individual award looks like it’ll go right down to the wire. And hey, don’t sleep on Bobby Witt Jr.—he’s making a late push that’s hard to ignore.

The Rise of Cal Raleigh’s Historic Power Display

For most of the season, everyone watched Aaron Judge closely. His early stats felt like something out of the Barry Bonds playbook.

But Judge’s pace slowed, partly from injury and a rough patch in late summer. Meanwhile, Cal Raleigh has been rewriting the record books.

Breaking the Catcher Home Run Record

Raleigh’s crushed 50 home runs, blowing past Salvador Perez’s single-season mark for catchers. Even wilder, 40 of those bombs came while actually catching, putting him within reach of the all-time record for the position.

He’s even inching closer to Judge’s American League single-season home run record of 62, which Judge set in 2022. It’s not just about the home runs, though.

Raleigh’s got a .245/.352/.591 slash line and a 159 wRC+, which puts him among the game’s best hitters. Throw in 76 walks, 14 steals, and his top-tier pitch-framing—yeah, he’s making a difference everywhere.

Judge’s Injuries Shift the MVP Dynamic

Aaron Judge is still terrifying for pitchers. His line sits at .321/.437/.663 with a 192 wRC+, leading the majors, and his strike zone discipline is just unfair sometimes.

But a flexor strain in July forced him into a strict DH role for two months, so he’s not adding much on defense now. That’s definitely affected his overall value, at least in the eyes of the advanced stats crowd.

How the Numbers Compare

As of late August, Raleigh and Judge are tied at 7.3 FanGraphs WAR. Baseball Reference WAR (which uses different defensive stats) still gives Judge a tiny edge.

They’re getting it done in completely different ways, which honestly makes the debate a lot more interesting than usual.

• Raleigh: Leading AL in Win Probability Added (WPA) and Championship WPA—he’s been clutch when it matters.
• Judge: Leading in RE24 and REW—he’s dominating the big-picture run and win expectancy stats.

The Bobby Witt Jr. Factor

While Judge and Raleigh keep trading blows at the top, Bobby Witt Jr. is hanging around as a legit dark horse. He’s already put up a 6.5 WAR season, thanks to a mix of power, speed, and highlight-reel defense.

Since the All-Star break, Witt’s actually outpaced both Judge and Raleigh in FanGraphs WAR. He’s the surging third option, and it’d be wild if he snuck in to steal some votes.

What Could Swing the Vote

The last month is going to decide this thing. If Raleigh keeps homering, especially if he gets close to Judge’s 2022 record, that might be enough for voters.

If Judge returns to the field or goes on another offensive tear, he could easily take back the spotlight. And if Witt keeps doing everything well, maybe voters who love the all-around game will give him the nod. It’s all up for grabs now.

Final Thoughts

In a lot of seasons, Judge’s offensive numbers would pretty much lock up the MVP trophy. But this year, Raleigh’s wild home run pace and his top-tier defense behind the plate keep things interesting.

Now, Bobby Witt Jr. jumps into the mix. Suddenly, it’s a three-way battle—raw power, all-around skill, and those clutch moments, all tangled up together.

The margin for error? It’s tiny. As September rolls on, every at-bat feels like it could tip the scales and decide who ends up with the hardware.

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