Can Victor Scott Hit Consistently for the St. Louis Cardinals?

Victor Scott II is a player with a rare mix of skills for the St. Louis Cardinals. He brings elite sprint speed and standout defense, but his offense hasn’t quite found its footing yet.

This piece looks at how his first half of 2025 showed the makings of a high-end role player. It also digs into how a rough midseason stretch and a focused offseason could shape his shot at a full-time starting job in 2026.

Profile: a speed-driven defender with big upside and stubborn question marks

Scott opened 2025 with noticeable momentum. He posted a 94 wRC+ through June and 1.7 fWAR across 283 plate appearances.

Most of that early value came from his defense and baserunning, not from big power or high-contact hitting. After June, though, the drop-off was hard to miss. In his last 59 games, he was basically replacement level at the plate, putting up a 46 wRC+ and hitting below the Mendoza line.

His xwOBA stayed steady even as the results faded, pointing to a weird gap between what the numbers expected and what actually happened. On the bright side, Scott’s speed is a real weapon.

He clocks in at 30.2 ft/s sprint speed and ranks fifth among outfielders in defensive stats. His baserunning also lands him 13th in MLB—that’s no small feat.

Put it all together, and you’ve got a player with premium range, sharp reads, and the kind of game-changing ability that doesn’t rely on home runs. Managers love that kind of foundation.

Offensive profile: pursuing a contact-first, gap-to-gap lefty approach

At the plate, Scott swings from the left side with a contact-first, gap-to-gap style. He’s not chasing home runs, and his exit velocity is on the lower side.

He tries to keep his swing level and use the whole field, which sounds good in theory. But the power just isn’t there yet. His biggest challenge? Making steady contact on pitches outside the zone, especially breaking balls.

His overall contact rate hits about league average, but his out-of-zone contact is just 46.6%. On breaking balls outside the zone, it drops to 24%—that’s a real sticking point for turning his speed and approach into runs.

Still, his swing decisions are usually sharp. He lays off junk and goes after strikes, which is what you want from a hitter who can do damage when he connects.

His launch angle sits above average, hinting at some untapped slugging potential. In the offseason, Scott worked on mechanical tweaks—shortening his path to the ball, fixing shin angles, rotating more efficiently, and staying flexible against breaking stuff.

The goal? Make his tools work together for a more dependable, contact-driven plate profile that actually brings in runs.

Defensive and baserunning impact: the other half of the equation

Defense and baserunning are where Scott really stands out. His speed and footwork let him cover ground most right-fielders only dream of.

Defensive metrics put him among the best in the game. Add in his above-average baserunning, and you see why teams think he could anchor center field in the right lineup.

If the bat can just settle in a bit, his glove and legs could keep him in the lineup, even if the offense takes time to catch up.

The mechanical overhaul and the 2026 test

Scott spent the offseason focused on depth and quickness—shorter swing path, better shin angles, and smoother rotation to handle breaking balls. He used motion-capture-driven fixes to try to turn his athleticism into consistent swings and more contact, especially against non-fastballs.

Manager Oli Marmol has shown plenty of faith in Scott’s work ethic and upside. Early 2026 now feels like a make-or-break stretch for Scott’s shot at a permanent starting job.

Ceiling, comps, and a realistic outcome

Some experts see Scott as a soft-contact lefty in the mold of Adam Frazier, Luis Arraez, or Steven Kwan. If the contact gains stick, a wRC+ between 89–114 seems like a reasonable goal, especially if he keeps focusing on gap-to-gap hitting.

The best-case scenario? He becomes that rare mix of elite defender and basepath threat with a solid, everyday bat in right or center. But will those mechanical changes bring enough contact for steady production, or will his defense just outshine an average stick? That’s the real question heading into 2026.

What to watch in 2026

• Can Scott turn his elite defense and speed into a stable starting role without losing that on-base spark?
• Will the mechanical tweaks actually boost his contact, especially against breaking balls outside the zone?
• Does his baserunning still stand out as his hitting profile settles in?
• Will his xwOBA finally match up with his real-world results and close the gap we saw in 2025?
• How does Marmol fit Scott into the lineup while juggling other outfield options?

Victor Scott II heads into 2026 at a pivotal moment. His career could swing wildly depending on how these changes shake out.

If the improvements hold, maybe he becomes a reliable, everyday starter—one who stirs up the Cardinals’ offense with speed, defense, and sharper contact. But if things don’t quite land, he might slide back into a depth role, still valuable, but mostly for his glove and wheels.

 
Here is the source article for this story: Great Scott! Can Victor Hit?