Cubs 2026 ZiPS Forecast: Projected Lineup, Rotation, and Wins

The ZiPS projection system just weighed in on the Chicago Cubs, and honestly, the verdict feels both reassuring and a bit underwhelming. Let’s break down what these projections actually say about the Cubs’ roster—from a steady everyday lineup to a bullpen that seems more trustworthy than the rotation.

The numbers suggest this team could win quite a few games. Still, it’s hard to shake the sense that Chicago might have trouble standing out in a National League that’s loaded with competition.

ZiPS Sees a Solid, If Unspectacular, Contender

ZiPS puts the Cubs in the low 90s for wins, which is a nice spot to be in. That keeps them in the thick of the playoff race, but it doesn’t exactly put them ahead of rivals like Milwaukee, who are projected to be just as strong.

This roster isn’t built on wild swings or surprises. ZiPS sees a team that knows itself—steady, competent, and, well, kind of predictable.

A Familiar, Defense-First Lineup

The everyday lineup leans hard on established players with clear roles. Pete Crow-Armstrong, Nico Hoerner, and Dansby Swanson headline the group as defensive standouts.

They form the backbone of what ZiPS expects to be a top-tier run prevention unit. Behind the plate, Carson Kelly and Miguel Amaya are set to split catching duties, forming a reliable (if not thrilling) tandem.

At third, Alex Bregman is the primary guy and a key bat, expected to help offset the loss of Kyle Tucker’s offense. The pieces fit together, but nothing here screams “breakout.”

Questions Around Upside and Playing Time

The lineup feels stable, but ZiPS still raises questions about upside and roster fit. Moisés Ballesteros gets a little optimism for his offensive potential, especially if he slides into the designated hitter spot where his bat could really play.

Not everyone comes out looking great, though. Matt Shaw seems squeezed out by offseason moves, and ZiPS doubts he’ll have a big role.

Tyler Austin gets a positive mention after his time in Japan, but since he’s mostly limited to first base, his overall impact is capped. That’s just how it goes sometimes.

Depth Without Star Power

ZiPS points out that some internal evaluations might be a little too rosy. Players like Scott Kingery could be overrated in WAR-based projections.

The farm system doesn’t look especially deep, either. If injuries pile up, it’s tough to see where the impact reinforcements would come from.

A Rotation That Relies on Defense

The Cubs’ rotation? ZiPS calls it deep but, honestly, kind of “meh.” It’s a group of mostly average starters, not real aces, so the ceiling isn’t super high.

There’s some hope, though. Edward Cabrera stands out as a possible difference-maker, and Javier Assad, Ben Brown, and Jordan Wicks give the Cubs some useful depth. ZiPS expects the defense to help these pitchers out, sometimes making their ERAs look better than the underlying numbers.

A Bullpen That Inspires Confidence

If there’s one area where ZiPS actually gets excited, it’s the bullpen. Relievers like Hunter Harvey and Daniel Palencia get solid reviews, and Porter Hodge looks good in a projected relief role.

Of course, there are still some question marks—Ethan Roberts and Jacob Webb get more skeptical evaluations. But overall, this group seems capable of protecting leads and making games shorter, which is what you want at the end of the day.

The Bottom Line on the Cubs

ZiPS sees the Cubs as a well-rounded, mostly reliable team. They’re built on defense, depth, and a capable bullpen.

But what’s missing? That top-end pitching or the kind of offensive explosiveness that gets fans—or projection systems—really excited.

Chicago looks good enough to contend. Are they dangerous enough to dominate? I’m not convinced.

 
Here is the source article for this story: 2026 ZiPS Projections: Chicago Cubs