Cubs Playoff Scenarios With 22 Games Left: Division or Wild-Card

The Chicago Cubs are heading into the last weeks of the regular season, and their playoff chances look better than they have in years. With just 22 games left and an 80-60 record, they’re sitting in a strong wild-card spot.

There’s still a slim chance at the NL Central division title, too. Manager Craig Counsell hasn’t committed to any postseason pitching plans yet, since the team’s route to October is still a bit murky.

But one thing’s obvious — the Cubs hold their own fate in their hands right now.

Cubs’ Playoff Picture: Division Dreams vs. Wild Card Reality

The Cubs trail the Milwaukee Brewers by 5½ games in the division. That gap isn’t impossible to close, but let’s be honest, it would take a big Brewers collapse for the Cubs to catch up.

Chicago does have the season tiebreaker over Milwaukee, thanks to their head-to-head series win. That could matter a lot if the race actually gets tight.

Milwaukee owns the league’s best record at 86-55. They’d have to stumble hard for the Cubs to take the NL Central crown.

While Counsell keeps the door open, the more realistic path seems to be locking up the top wild card spot and aiming for home-field advantage in the first playoff series.

Wild Card Outlook and Key Competitors

If the season ended today, the Cubs would grab the No. 4 seed and host a best-of-three Wild Card Series at Wrigley Field. That home-field edge? It’s huge, considering how well Chicago’s played at the Friendly Confines this year.

The closest threats for that spot include:

• San Diego Padres (76-64) – They’re right behind Chicago and itching to move up.
• New York Mets (75-65) – Always dangerous in a short series, and there’s a late-season Cubs-Mets showdown looming.
• San Francisco Giants (71-69) – Four games back, with a lot of ground to make up.

That upcoming series against the Mets could seriously shake up the playoff picture and maybe even land the Cubs a better matchup in October.

Why the Schedule Favors Chicago

The Cubs have a real edge as the season winds down: their schedule is about as soft as you could hope for. Of their seven remaining opponents, six are currently below .500.

It’s the perfect setup for Chicago to pile up wins and keep their grip on the top wild card slot.

Numbers That Tell the Story

FanGraphs gives the Cubs’ playoff odds at a wild 99.8%. Their magic number to clinch a postseason spot sits at 14 — any combo of Cubs wins and rival losses adding up to 14 gets them in.

Nothing’s ever truly certain in baseball, but honestly, it’d take a disaster for Chicago to miss out now.

Managerial Approach: Counsell Keeps It Calm

Craig Counsell’s been through this before. He knows that it’s smarter to set playoff rotations and strategies after the regular season ends.

Right now, he’s just focused on keeping momentum, making sure his players stay healthy, and not letting anyone get too comfortable against weaker teams.

The Cubs’ depth, especially in pitching, could really matter if they make a run. Counsell’s history suggests he’ll lean on matchups and stay flexible rather than locking into a plan too early.

Final Stretch: Controlling Their Destiny

The path looks clear. The Cubs need to take advantage of a friendly schedule and finish the season strong.

If they clinch early, Chicago can rest key players. That extra rest could help them fine-tune for the postseason.

Cubs fans are staring down 22 games packed with drama and tension. Will they chase down the Brewers, or just lock in a wild card spot?

Either way, the goal is obvious — make a deep run in October. Honestly, with the way this team’s rolling, that feels totally possible.

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