Fantasy Baseball: Add Curtis Mead, Coby Mayo and More

**Unearthing Hidden Gems: Finding Fantasy Baseball Value in May’s Plate Appearance Data**

This article digs into the world of fantasy baseball player evaluation, zeroing in on undervalued hitters from May. We analyzed a custom leaderboard of players with at least 40 plate appearances, filtering for quality-of-contact metrics—above-average hard-hit rates, zone contact, low swinging-strike rates, and strong exit velocities.

The goal? To spot hidden gems and potential trade targets that most fantasy managers might miss.

Beyond the Box Score: The Analytics Behind Identifying Value

In today’s data-driven fantasy landscape, relying on batting averages and home run totals just isn’t enough. We wanted a more nuanced approach, focusing on the underlying mechanics and decision-making that lead to lasting success.

We’re after hitters who are *doing the right things* at the plate, even if their results haven’t caught up yet.

The Analytical Framework: What We’re Looking For

To build our custom leaderboard, we picked out key performance indicators and compared them against league averages for May. These metrics help separate players making solid contact from those just riding a lucky streak or stuck with bad luck.

* Hard-Hit Rate: This measures the percentage of batted balls hit with real force. A higher rate means a player is driving the ball more often. The league average for May sat at 38.7%.
* Zone Contact Rate: This shows how often a hitter makes contact with pitches in the strike zone. Elite zone contact points to good discipline and a sharp eye. The league average was 86.9%.
* Swinging-Strike Rate (SwStr): A low swinging-strike rate signals a hitter’s knack for making contact and avoiding wasted swings. It’s key for avoiding strikeouts and putting balls in play. The league average landed at 10.7%.
* EV90 (Exit Velocity on 90% of Batted Balls): This stat gives a steadier look at a player’s power by filtering out the weird outliers. We used an EV90 of 104.5 mph as a benchmark, though we relaxed some thresholds for context.

The Elite and the Evolving: Who Made the Cut and Why

Household names like Juan Soto, Aaron Judge, Ronald Acuña Jr., and Mike Trout fill up the top of the leaderboard. They consistently show off these elite contact skills.

But let’s be honest, we’re really hunting for guys who have these traits but aren’t getting much attention. Maybe their production is inconsistent, or their roster percentages are low. With some positive regression, these players could turn into category-defining assets for your fantasy team.

Targeting the Uncommon: Key Prospects and Trade Candidates

The real gold is in finding players who show the right contact skills but have been unlucky or are adjusting to new roles. These are the folks you can snag off waivers or trade for without breaking the bank.

* Michael Massey and Justin Foscue both flashed excellent hard-hit and zone-contact rates in May. Their rough results probably come down to unlucky BABIPs, so better days could be coming.
* Nolan Arenado and Kyle Karros are more established, but if their contact metrics stay strong, they’re worth a look.
* Mickey Gasper has a solid contact profile. If he gets consistent at-bats, he might unlock more value.
* Keibert Ruiz and Dylan Crews show promise. Crews, especially, has boosted his contact and exit velocity since being recalled. His slash line isn’t pretty, but a better chase rate could spark a breakout in June.
* Vaughn Grissom and Michael Massey (again) show elite contact stats but just can’t catch a break. If luck shifts, expect improvement.
* Nathaniel Lowe and Coby Mayo offer strong contact profiles, though their results swing up and down. They’re intriguing for deeper leagues if the contact quality sticks.
* Isaac Collins, Curtis Mead, and Blaze Alexander deserve attention too. Mead, in particular, has improved his approach and exit velocities, plus he’s pulling and lifting more, which led to a solid May and a clearer shot at playing time.
* Bryce Eldridge and Blaze Alexander (in limited roles) are showing off high hard-hit rates and refined approaches. If they see more playing time, they’re worth a speculative or dynasty stash.
* Jorge Mateo and Dillon Dingler make the list as players defying first impressions.
* Michael Conforto might be established, but he still has the contact chops. Paired with a good approach, that can mean big production.

The Takeaway: Trust the Process, Not Just the Numbers

This approach leans heavily on process rather than chasing every little statistical blip. When you focus on hitters with high contact rates and minimal swings and misses, you’re setting yourself up to find value others might overlook.

Look for players who hit the ball hard, even if their box scores aren’t flashy yet. These skills tend to win out over time, even if the results aren’t there right away.

Baseball analytics keeps changing, but understanding these underlying skills? That’s still how you get ahead in fantasy baseball.
 
Here is the source article for this story: Fantasy Baseball Hitters to Target: Adding Curtis Mead, Coby Mayo, more based on recent stats