Seth Hernandez, a 19-year-old right-handed pitcher from Corona High in California, is turning heads as one of the top prospects for the 2025 MLB Draft. He’s got impressive size, a fastball that flirts with the high-90s, and his secondary pitches look way beyond his years.
Scouts can’t stop talking about him. Still, even with all that buzz, Hernandez faces long odds of becoming the No. 1 overall pick—mostly because of the rocky track record for high school right-handed pitchers at the top of the Major League Baseball draft.
This post takes a closer look at Hernandez’s upside and why teams have usually avoided picking high school righties first overall.
The Challenges Facing High School Right-Handed Pitchers in the MLB Draft
High school right-handed pitchers come with a big warning sign in the world of baseball scouting. Over the MLB Draft’s 60-year run, not a single high school right-handed pitcher has gone No. 1 overall.
That’s not just bad luck—it’s a mix of stats and risk management. High school arms are just more unpredictable than college pitchers or position players.
Teams have become wary of the rollercoaster development of young pitchers and their higher injury risk. Sure, more than 60% of first-round high school right-handed pitchers eventually make it to the majors, but their long-term impact doesn’t really stack up to other types of players.
It’s just tough to project durability, command, and physical maturity in teenagers. You never really know what you’re getting.
The Impact of Draft Preferences and Cautionary Tales
MLB teams get strategic with early draft picks because those decisions can define a franchise for years. Over time, teams have leaned toward players who can deliver results sooner, especially college pitchers and high school position players.
These prospects usually have easier development paths and show upside right away, so teams see them as safer bets at the top of the draft. High school left-handed pitchers have done a bit better—three have gone first overall—but even those picks haven’t always paid off like teams hoped.
Stories like Todd Van Poppel, who looked like a sure thing but never lived up to the hype, make teams even more cautious about gambling on young pitchers.
The Rise of College Pitching Prospects
College pitching programs have changed the landscape for draft prospects. Advancements in collegiate player development have shrunk the gap between high school and college pitchers, so teams now see college arms as even more attractive.
College pitchers tend to reach the majors faster, with cleaner mechanics and more mature approaches. They know their bodies better and handle tough competition without as many growing pains.
Guys like Hunter Greene and Josh Beckett, both picked No. 2 overall as high school righties, show how unpredictable the results can be. Greene’s got a rocket arm and a lot of promise, while Beckett’s career had plenty of ups and downs.
Seth Hernandez: The Exception or Another Victim of Precedent?
Still, Seth Hernandez might just break the mold. Scouts keep mentioning his name in top-10 draft conversations for 2025, and several teams seem genuinely interested in him.
They know he could turn into an elite starter. He’s already throwing close to triple digits and has a feel for secondary pitches that’s rare for his age.
But let’s be real—there are big obstacles in his way. Teams these days are ultra-focused on avoiding risk, especially with high draft picks and the money on the line.
Sure, his raw talent is hard to ignore, but most folks around the game still doubt a high school righty will go No. 1 overall anytime soon. Maybe Hernandez changes that, maybe not. Guess we’ll find out.
Celebrating Seth Hernandez’s Potential Amid Historical Trends
Seth Hernandez probably won’t become the first overall pick in the 2025 MLB Draft. Still, his talent is tough to ignore.
High school right-handed pitchers have always carried some risk. Yet, Hernandez just feels like one of those rare exceptions who could shake things up.
Maybe he’ll go top-10, maybe even higher. Either way, I’d bet MLB fans will keep hearing his name for years—who knows, maybe he’ll end up a star when it really counts.
Here is the source article for this story: A high school right-hander has never gone 1-1 in the MLB Draft. Why it may never happen
Experience Baseball History in Person
Want to walk the same grounds where baseball legends made history? Find accommodations near iconic ballparks across America and create your own baseball pilgrimage.
Check availability at hotels near: Yankee Stadium, Fenway Park, Wrigley Field, Dodger Stadium
Plan your ballpark visit: Get MLB Ballpark Tickets and find accommodations nearby.
- Biographies
- Stadium Guides
- Current Baseball Players
- Current Players by Team
- Players that Retired in the 2020s
- Players that Retired in the 2010s
- Players that Retired in the 2000s
- Players that Retired in the 1990s
- Players that Retired in the 1980s
- Players that Retired in the 1970s
- Players that Retired in the 1960s
- Players that Retired in the 1950s
- Players that Retired in the 1940s
- Players that Retired in the 1930s