FanGraphs recently took a close look at its free-agent contract predictions for the winter. The author compared their own estimates against a crowdsourced forecast and several industry experts, covering hitters, starters, relievers, and the Top 50 free agents.
They used a year-adjusted approach to normalize deals of different lengths. This way, they could see how close each forecast came to the real contracts in terms of average annual value, total guaranteed money, and contract length.
The study also checked overall market accuracy. Surprisingly, crowdsourcing held up really well—sometimes even better than the usual pundits—and dodged some of the overestimation traps that tripped up many experts.
Overview of the FanGraphs Review
FanGraphs didn’t just check single-point predictions. Instead, they broke down the structure of forecasts across several angles.
The comparison included the author’s estimates, crowdsourced predictions, and picks from established industry names. They focused especially on the Top 50 free agents.
The goal? Figure out who forecasted the market most reliably, and spot any biases, especially with players coming from foreign leagues or tricky posting-fee situations.
How The Predictions Were Measured
The study used a year-adjusted formula to compare deals of different lengths fairly. Then, they broke down errors by:
- Average annual value (AAV)
- Total guaranteed money
- Contract length
They also checked each method’s overall market accuracy. This gave a benchmark to see how reliable each forecasting style really was.
Crowdsourced forecasts often nailed the middle of the market. Expert estimates sometimes leaned too high when predicting how much teams would spend in a given winter.
Crowdsourcing vs. Expert Forecasts
The crowdsourced approach did great, often matching or even beating the experts. It steered clear of the systematic overestimation that tripped up a lot of pro predictions.
The crowd seemed to do best with mid-market targets and some specific contracts that landed just a few million off from the actual numbers. But for the top-tier stars, the crowd’s estimates usually came in a bit low. That’s a pretty common blind spot when forecasting elite players.
Crowdsourcing’s Performance
The crowd got a lot of mid-market deals right and even nailed some contract figures almost exactly. It’s kind of wild how collective judgment can line up with what actually happens, even in a free-agent market that’s all over the place.
The biggest strength? The crowd avoided those inflated projections you see with high-profile players. This makes crowdsourcing a solid baseline for teams weighing their options.
Notable Overestimates and Underestimates
The study found some rare but telling misses, especially with foreign-league signees. The author’s biggest overestimates came with NPB players Munetaka Murakami and Tatsuya Imai, where posting-fee rules led to shorter, smaller contracts than expected.
Other overestimates included Kyle Tucker and Eugenio Suárez, showing a tendency to overrate certain hitters. On the flip side, underestimates popped up for Michael King, Cody Bellinger, and Alex Bregman, suggesting there was hotter demand for those players than anyone guessed.
Market Performance Without NPB Signees
When the NPB players were taken out of the mix, the author’s predictions got a lot sharper. Accuracy shot up to almost perfect.
In this trimmed-down view, Kiley McDaniel (ESPN) and the author stood out as two of the only forecasters who didn’t overshoot the market. It really highlights the value of blending different approaches when trying to decode a complicated signing window.
Relief Pitchers and Total Money
MLB Trade Rumors (MLBTR) came out on top for relief-pitcher forecasts. Kiley McDaniel was closest on total committed money after adjusting for contract length.
Different groups clearly excel in different market segments. It makes sense to check multiple sources if you’re trying to gauge risk and trends in free-agent spending.
Practical Takeaways and Hybrid Forecasting
Honestly, both the individual and crowd forecasts offer strong insights, but each has its own strengths. A hybrid approach seems best: use the author’s estimates for the top-tier market, lean on crowdsourced numbers for everyone else, and be extra careful with players coming from foreign leagues.
This setup helps spot where biases creep in and takes advantage of collective wisdom for a more balanced read on the market. No one method nails it all—but together, they get pretty close.
Here is the source article for this story: Evaluating Our Free Agent Contract Predictions
Experience Baseball History in Person
Want to walk the same grounds where baseball legends made history? Find accommodations near iconic ballparks across America and create your own baseball pilgrimage.
Check availability at hotels near: Yankee Stadium, Fenway Park, Wrigley Field, Dodger Stadium
Plan your ballpark visit: Get MLB Ballpark Tickets and find accommodations nearby.
- Biographies
- Stadium Guides
- Current Baseball Players
- Current Players by Team
- Players that Retired in the 2020s
- Players that Retired in the 2010s
- Players that Retired in the 2000s
- Players that Retired in the 1990s
- Players that Retired in the 1980s
- Players that Retired in the 1970s
- Players that Retired in the 1960s
- Players that Retired in the 1950s
- Players that Retired in the 1940s
- Players that Retired in the 1930s