Royals’ Harrison Bader and Lane Thomas Expose Outfield Unreliability

This blog post breaks down how Major League Baseball’s free-agent market values consistency versus volatility, using the Kansas City Royals’ signing of Lane Thomas and the San Francisco Giants’ deal with Harrison Bader as a case study.

It looks at why two players with similar recent résumés landed such different contracts—and what that says about today’s roster-building mindset.

The Economics of Consistency in Free Agency

After three decades of watching front offices operate, one truth keeps showing up: reliability gets paid.

Players who stack productive seasons year after year end up with long-term, high-dollar contracts. Everyone else just lives in a totally different neighborhood of the market, where short-term deals and “prove-it” offers rule the day.

That second group usually includes two types of players—those whose best years seem behind them, and those who suddenly shine after years of mediocrity.

Teams have to decide if they’re buying a real trend or just a mirage. The results? They’re all over the place.

Lane Thomas: A Cautious Bet by the Royals

The Kansas City Royals landed in the conservative camp when they signed outfielder Lane Thomas to a one-year, $6 million contract.

On the surface, Thomas is intriguing. He posted a strong 2.9 WAR season in 2023 and started to look like a late bloomer who could anchor an outfield corner.

But then things got rocky. A poor 2024, followed by an injury-plagued 2025, made it tough to project sustained production.

There’s also the age factor—Thomas turns 31 in August. That naturally caps any long-term upside, doesn’t it?

Why the Risk Is Manageable

From the Royals’ perspective, the contract structure is the real appeal. A one-year deal limits the risk, letting Kansas City walk away if Thomas’s decline continues.

• Short-term financial commitment
• No long-term roster blockage
• Potential trade value if he rebounds

Harrison Bader: The Giants Bet on Recency

The San Francisco Giants went the other way, signing Harrison Bader to a two-year, $20.5 million deal.

The motivation isn’t hard to spot. Bader bounced back in 2025 with a 3.3 WAR season, reminding everyone why he once drew hype.

That big year seems to have outweighed his longer offensive track record. From 2022 through 2024, he put up a pretty modest .239/.284/.360 slash line.

These days, recent performance seems to speak louder than distant history.

Projection Models Favor Bader

Analytical systems back up the Giants’ optimism. ZiPS projects Bader for 2.1 WAR next season, compared to just 0.8 WAR for Thomas.

Those numbers help explain why Bader landed more than triple the guaranteed money.

Is the Market Overreacting?

Still, skepticism feels justified. Bader’s been a light-hitting center fielder for years, and one big season doesn’t erase a long stretch of inconsistency.

Is he really going to be twice as valuable as Thomas? Maybe that’s a stretch.

This “what have you done for me lately” mindset rules free agency now. Teams seem more willing than ever to pay for the latest data point—even when it flies in the face of a bigger body of work.

Who Made the Better Move?

From a risk-management standpoint, the Royals’ approach looks pretty defensible. A $6 million flyer is way easier to absorb than a two-year deal that could quickly turn into dead money.

Kansas City minimized downside. San Francisco, though, chased upside.

 
Here is the source article for this story: Harrison Bader, Lane Thomas, and levels of unreliability