The Seattle Mariners are navigating a critical stretch in their 2024 MLB campaign. After an electrifying 9-1 homestand that had fans talking playoffs, the team has hit a bump on their current East Coast road trip. They’ve gone just 2-4 against the Baltimore Orioles and New York Mets.
Now, they’re staring down a major showdown against the NL East-leading Philadelphia Phillies. The Mariners’ postseason positioning and division hopes could hinge on how they respond in this series.
Advanced analytics still like Seattle’s playoff chances, even after the recent skid. But with Houston breathing down their necks, there’s barely any room for error.
Mariners’ Playoff Picture: Where They Stand Now
At 68-57, the Mariners are just 1.5 games behind the Houston Astros (69-55) in the AL West. They’re tied with the Boston Red Sox for the top American League wild-card spot.
Seattle also has a slim half-game edge over the New York Yankees for the third and final playoff berth. That’s a tight squeeze.
The good news? Seattle still has a bit of breathing room over the next wave of contenders. The Cleveland Guardians trail by four games.
The Kansas City Royals sit 4.5 games back. With 37 games left, the margin is manageable — but it’s definitely not comfortable.
Postseason Odds Favor the Mariners
According to Fangraphs, the Mariners have a 92% chance of reaching the playoffs. Their shot at winning the AL West comes in at 46.3%.
Houston holds a slightly better edge in division probability at 52.6%. This race feels neck-and-neck.
Championship projections look pretty promising. The Mariners own the second-best odds to win the AL pennant at 18.4%, trailing only the Toronto Blue Jays at 21.2%.
When it comes to the World Series, Seattle sits in third at 9.3%. The Dodgers (19.8%) and Blue Jays (9.5%) are ahead.
What’s Behind the Recent Slump?
Seattle’s offense, which powered their dominant homestand, has cooled off. Baltimore and New York threw some tough pitching at them, and the Mariners couldn’t string together runs.
The pitching staff has gotten little margin for error. Their inability to pick up timely hits has been especially costly in close games.
That’s a big contrast to the clutch performances that defined their earlier winning stretch. It’s a frustrating flip, honestly.
Road Challenges Continue in Philadelphia
The Mariners’ next test is against the 71-53 Philadelphia Phillies. The Phillies are tied with the Dodgers for the NL’s second-best record.
Philadelphia boasts a powerful lineup and plays well at home. Seattle will need their starters and bullpen sharp if they want to leave Citizens Bank Park with a series win.
- Key Matchup to Watch: Seattle’s rotation versus Philadelphia’s top-of-the-order bats, especially in the first two innings. The Phillies often set the tone early.
- Offensive Catalyst Needed: Getting production from hitters outside the middle of the order would really help take the pressure off the star sluggers.
High Stakes for the AL West Race
This series isn’t just about getting back in the win column. It’s about keeping pace with Houston and hanging onto a playoff spot in a tightly packed race.
Every win (and loss) from here on out carries extra weight, especially with multiple contenders jostling for just a handful of postseason tickets. It’s going to get tense.
The Stretch Run Will Test Seattle’s Depth
People always say true contenders find another gear when the season winds down. For the Mariners, that next level has to come from their stars, sure, but also from the role players who step up in big moments.
Pitching depth will matter. Offensive balance and sharp defense could decide if Seattle wins the division or sneaks in through the wild card.
The road’s gotten tougher lately. Still, the Mariners’ playoff hopes are alive and kicking.
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Here is the source article for this story: The Seattle Mariners’ playoff picture after 2 series losses
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