The Toronto Blue Jays’ offseason took an unexpected twist when Shane Bieber decided to pick up his $16 million player option for the 2026 season. Instead of hitting free agency and taking a $4 million buyout, he’s sticking around.
Beneath the headline, this is really about risk management and the cloud of injury uncertainty. The Blue Jays’ rotation looks loaded on paper, but it’s also fragile as they push toward 2026.
Shane Bieber Bets on Stability Over Free Agency
Bieber’s choice looked counterintuitive at first glance. A former Cy Young winner with a 3.66 ERA over 59 innings in 2025 doesn’t usually pass on the open market, especially when multi-year offers seem realistic.
But context matters here. Bieber’s recent health history changed the calculus for both him and the club.
Forearm Fatigue and the Shadow of Tommy John
Late in the 2025 season, Bieber started dealing with forearm fatigue. That’s a red flag for any pitcher, but it’s even more concerning since he’d just returned from Tommy John surgery.
The Blue Jays put on a brave face publicly, but behind the scenes, things felt more complicated. The right-hander has already started rehab and, by most accounts, is “in a strong position” physically.
Blue Jays president Ross Atkins suggested that an Opening Day 2026 return is realistic, though he wouldn’t call it a guarantee. For a pitcher with Bieber’s recent track record, that “not guaranteed” part really matters.
Why the Option Made Sense for Bieber
Given all that uncertainty, picking up the $16 million option makes a lot more sense. Free agency with an arm issue and questions about readiness? No thanks. Instead, Bieber gets:
This feels like a calculated delay—a one-year reset to maximize his value rather than gamble on a still-recovering arm in a crowded pitching market. Who could blame him?
How Bieber’s Decision Shapes the Blue Jays’ Rotation
Toronto spent the last year building a rotation that could handle this kind of uncertainty. Bieber sticking around adds upside, but it also complicates an already crowded picture.
If Bieber starts the season on the injured list, the Blue Jays have prepared for that too.
A Deep, Talented, and Crowded Starting Staff
Even without Bieber from Day 1, Toronto’s projected rotation is one of the most intriguing groups in the American League. Right now, the Jays can roll out:
Behind them, there’s real depth—the kind that separates contenders from the rest over a 162-game slog.
Rotation Depth: A Necessity, Not a Luxury
Toronto’s secondary layer of arms gives them flexibility to absorb setbacks or make bold moves:
Bieber’s status is up in the air, and other starters have their own question marks. This depth isn’t just a nice-to-have—it’s absolutely necessary. Relying on best-case scenarios? That’s a recipe for disappointment, and the front office knows it.
Could Jose Berrios Be the Trade Chip?
Bieber’s return is already fueling trade speculation. With so many capable starters, the Blue Jays can consider dealing from strength, and Jose Berrios is the name that keeps coming up.
Berrios’ durability and contract make him attractive to other clubs. Trading him could help Toronto address other needs while still keeping the rotation strong—especially if Bieber gets back sooner than expected.
Still Shopping for Pitching, Despite the Numbers
Even after adding Cease and Ponce and keeping Bieber, Toronto is still checking out the pitching market. That says a lot about how the organization views its own risk profile.
Bieber’s rehab, the volatility with arms like Cease and Rodriguez, and the usual attrition that hits every staff—these are all on the Jays’ minds. They’re keeping the door open for more additions. This rotation has high upside, but it might need aggressive in-season tweaks. Wouldn’t be shocking.
What Bieber’s Choice Means for 2026
Shane Bieber’s decision to stay in Toronto feels like a matter of timing as much as money. He gets a stable platform to rebuild his value.
The Blue Jays hold onto a potential top-of-the-rotation arm without piling on long-term risk. That’s not nothing, especially with their current roster.
For Toronto, the 2026 season may depend on how quickly and fully Bieber returns. The front office has to manage a rotation that’s both stocked and, honestly, a bit fragile.
There’ll probably be more movement, more rumors, and a constant balancing act. Protecting arms while chasing wins in a tough American League? That’s a tall order.
Here is the source article for this story: Shane Bieber Dealt With Forearm Fatigue Late In 2025 Season
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