Three Red Sox Youngsters Who Could Add Home Run Power

This piece breaks down FanGraphs’ ZiPS projections for the Boston Red Sox ahead of the 2026 season. It digs into who’s expected to supply the bulk of the team’s power—and what the front office thinks could unlock more homers from a roster that mixes veterans with rising youngsters.

It also captures the club’s level of optimism and the specific players cited as potential power catalysts.

ZiPS Projections Paint a Modest Power Ceiling for 2026

FanGraphs’ numbers show no Red Sox player topping 18 homers in 2026. Three players share the team’s most optimistic projections at 18 homers, while several others sit just below that mark.

A few younger faces carry more modest forecasts. Here are the top projections right now:

• Trevor Story — 18 HR
• Roman Anthony — 18 HR
• Wilyer Abreu — 18 HR
• Willson Contreras — 17 HR
• Ceddanne Rafaela — 17 HR
• Jarren Duran — 17 HR
• Marcelo Mayer — 9 HR

There’s a spread of power across the lineup, with a trio at the 18-homer mark leading the way. A few others are projected for strong contributions in the high teens.

Contreras, acquired in December from the Cardinals, sits at 17 homers in this projection. The hope is that his bat-to-ball approach can drive run production near the top of the order.

Rafaela and Duran are also forecast for double-digit power. The club’s youngest infield prospect, Mayer, trails with a nine-homer projection, though his upside is obvious.

Boston’s brain trust—Chief Baseball Officer Craig Breslow and manager Alex Cora—still believe the roster has more pop than the ZiPS line suggests. They point to player growth, health, and better strike-zone decisions as the keys to lifting those numbers.

Unlocking Power: Rafaela, Anthony and Mayer Could Change the Narrative

Ceddanne Rafaela posted 16 homers, 34 doubles, and a .414 slugging percentage last season. That kind of profile hints at more power if he can refine his approach.

Cora has stressed that Rafaela’s chase rate—42.2%, way down in MLB’s lower tier—has hurt his consistency. Trimming that tendency could unlock more long balls.

Breslow echoed the sentiment and identified Rafaela as one of the young players who could carry more impact in the middle of the order, provided he improves strike recognition and contact quality.

• Ceddanne Rafaela — 16 HR, 34 doubles, .414 slugging last season; chase-rate adjustments could unlock more power
• Roman Anthony — healthy season would bolster the group’s power; slugged .503 in his final 40 games as a rookie
• Marcelo Mayer — ZiPS projects 9 HR, but execs see potential for extra-base power beyond the projection

Anthony’s Health and Mayer’s Potential: A Two-Track Path to More Power

Roman Anthony looks like a classic breakout candidate if he can stay on the field. Breslow thinks a fully healthy season from the rookie—who flashed an explosive start and finished with a .503 slugging in his last 40 games—could push the team’s power output higher.

Marcelo Mayer brings a different kind of power potential. While ZiPS projects just 9 homers, the front office sees an ability to rack up extra-base hits, potentially shifting Boston’s dynamic around the infield and creating more chances for run production even if the homer total stays modest.

Contreras and Abreu: The Realistic Benchmarks for 2026 Power

Willson Contreras and Wilyer Abreu anchor the team’s power expectations as clubhouse authorities. Contreras has publicly focused on quality at-bats, no matter where he hits in the lineup, and he’s eager to handle the cleanup role after arriving from St. Louis.

Abreu is a critical piece for consistent power from the outfield corners. He could help turn a balanced lineup into a more dangerous run-scoring unit.

What This Means for the Red Sox in 2026

The ZiPS projections give us a sober baseline. Boston’s leadership thinks there’s more to come, though.

If Rafaela, Anthony, and Mayer tap into their ceiling, things could get interesting. Contreras and Abreu might bring real power if they sharpen their approach.

The Red Sox could blow past those forecasts, especially if they find ways to score in more than one way. It’s not all about having just one big slugger anymore, is it?

 
Here is the source article for this story: Red Sox cleanup hitter identifies 3 young players who could ‘add some more’ home run power