Wednesday MLB Odds & Picks: Bellinger, Yankees Start Strong

Derek Carty, a long-time ESPN fantasy baseball voice and creator of THE BAT X, breaks down MLB betting tips, prop recommendations, and projections for March 25, 2026.

He’s known for blending advanced analytics with real-world variables like ballparks, weather, bullpens, umpires, defense, and even catcher-pitcher framing. His system spits out betting projections and expected value (EV) that help bettors get a clearer picture.

EV Analytics is where Carty runs the math for long-term profit. It’s the spot for insight into which wagers might actually pay off over time.

Derek Carty’s Betting Method and EV Analytics

Carty loves a data-driven approach that feels a lot like front-office thinking. His projections estimate raw outcomes and also translate those into EV—the long-run profit expectation of a wager.

He weighs factors like park effects, weather, and pitcher-catcher dynamics to build a probabilistic view for each bet. The EV concept helps bettors cut through noise and focus on wagers with positive expected value across a big sample.

For followers, these picks aren’t just wild guesses. They’re grounded in a structured framework that combines player talent, environment, and historical tendencies.

EV Analytics acts as the scoreboard for long-term profitability. It helps bettors actually see risk and reward over time, instead of just chasing hot streaks.

Key bets for March 25, 2026

Here are Carty’s top selections for the day. Each comes with hit probabilities and EV figures, based on his latest projections and game conditions.

He highlights the logic behind each pick, from launch angles to park effects.

• Cody Bellinger OVER 0.5 RBI (+204) — Projected 33% chance to hit, EV $0.68, launch angle at 18.5° puts him in the 87th percentile.
• Cody Bellinger OVER 1.5 H+R+RBI (-102) — 53% hit probability, EV $0.27, temp and humidity look favorable.
• Luis Arraez UNDER 1.5 total bases (+131) — Projected 68% with a strong contact profile, EV $13.10, lower conversion rate than last season.
• Max Fried UNDER 1.5 earned runs (-103) — 56% chance, EV $11.09, Oracle Park is a top walk-suppressing environment.
• Logan Webb UNDER 1.5 earned runs (+118) — 47% chance, EV $2.07, keep an eye out for regression if the Yankees’ luck carries into 2026.

Carty also flags some notable team trends that color these bets. He likes to combine individual projections with contextual signals, rather than relying only on raw probabilities.

Team trends and contextual signals

Two team-specific patterns stand out this week. The Yankees have been scoring a lot on the road lately, while the Giants have looked strong in the first five innings at home.

These trends aren’t guarantees, but they do give you a different lens for interpreting the odds and EV numbers.

The Yankees’ road totals have gone OVER in 15 of their last 20 road games. That’s about +9.35 units and a 40% return on investment.

On the flip side, the Giants’ first-5-innings moneyline has won five straight at home, netting roughly +5.05 units and a 47% ROI.

Carty warns that trends are useful but should be weighed alongside broader projections. Past results don’t always predict what’ll happen next.

Practical takeaways for bettors

If you’re sizing up these bets, balance prop values with environmental factors and the long-term EV math. The Cody Bellinger options mix power and situational stuff—launch angle, weather—while the Arraez and Fried picks show how contact quality and park effects shape projections.

The Webb bet adds a contrarian angle if you think the Yankees’ luck is bound to run out soon. EV is all about the long run. Even strong picks with good EV can swing wildly in the short term.

Bottom line

March 25, 2026 brings a lineup where Derek Carty’s framework stands out. He blends THE BAT X-style projections, EV Analytics, and a sharp eye for the environment.

If you focus on bets with strong expected value and keep an eye on things like ballpark quirks or weather, you’re already ahead. Carty’s analysis gives bettors a way to make more disciplined choices all season long.

 
Here is the source article for this story: MLB betting tips for Wednesday: Bellinger and Yankees set to start season strong