2026 ZiPS Projections: Boston Red Sox Roster and Outlook

The Boston Red Sox are finally back on the front foot, and the projection systems are taking notice. ZiPS, one of baseball’s most respected forecasting models, now sees the 2026 Red Sox as a real AL East contender—not just a feel-good playoff story.

With a revamped rotation led by a new ace and a deeper lineup than in recent years, Boston seems ready to move past the .500 purgatory that’s defined their recent seasons. The farm system remains sturdy, too, which is a relief for fans who’ve watched too many prospects vanish for little return.

ZiPS Backs the Red Sox as True AL East Contenders

For the first time since 2021, the Red Sox open a season with playoff expectations and the metrics to back them up. ZiPS projects Boston to clear 90 wins, putting them right in the thick of a crowded AL East race.

This version of the Red Sox stands out because of an aggressive front office, a reshaped pitching staff, and a lineup with no glaring weak spots. ZiPS also sees Boston as carrying less downside risk than most of their division rivals—a rare compliment in a division that chews up flawed teams.

An Unsparing, Aggressive Front Office Strategy

Boston’s rise traces back to a front office that finally stopped clinging to sentimentality. Instead, they dealt from strength and made bold moves.

Trading for Garrett Crochet and Sonny Gray, plus acquiring Willson Contreras to fix the long-standing catcher issue, really changed the club’s identity. Boston didn’t just tweak around the edges—they attacked premium positions with real impact talent.

A Rotation Built Around a True Ace

The Red Sox head into the season with a starter that projection models treat as a top-tier arm. ZiPS pegs Garrett Crochet among the very best pitchers in baseball.

That shifts how the whole pitching staff gets evaluated, both in WAR projections and in how opponents have to plan for a series against Boston.

Garrett Crochet and Sonny Gray Lead the Way

ZiPS views Crochet as a legitimate frontline ace, giving him the second-highest WAR projection of any pitcher in the game. That’s not fringe-ace talk; that’s Cy Young-caliber territory.

Behind him, Sonny Gray steps in as a pivotal No. 2 starter, stabilizing the rotation with veteran reliability and strikeout stuff. After those two, the rotation shifts from star power to depth.

Brayan Bello is still a key developmental piece. Boston’s gathered a “strength in numbers” group for the back end, and ZiPS rates the Red Sox as having one of the league’s better 4/5 situations, thanks to a cluster of average-to-upside arms who can provide league-average or better innings.

Deep, Trustworthy Bullpen with Upside

ZiPS is bullish on the bullpen, too. After a strong 2025, Aroldis Chapman still profiles as a late-inning weapon.

Garrett Whitlock thrives in a high-leverage setup role that seems tailor-made for his mix. There’s a bit of concern about Zack Kelly, but overall, the model doesn’t see any glaring issues in this relief group. The bullpen grades out as a net positive, which is a big shift from recent Boston teams that leaned on patchwork arms and just hoped for the best.

A Lineup Without Black Holes

ZiPS projects Boston’s offense as deep and consistently above average, with no true black holes in the starting lineup. That’s especially notable since so many teams struggle to fill catcher, second base, and third base.

By reinforcing those spots and blending power, athleticism, and on-base skills, the Red Sox have built a lineup that can grind down opposing pitching over a long season.

Roman Anthony, Jarren Duran, Rafaela, and Bregman Set the Tone

The offensive core is anchored by a group that checks nearly every box analytically:

The supporting cast isn’t loaded with superstars, but they collectively project to be solid or better at almost every spot. Even at catcher, second, and third, ZiPS sees above-average competence instead of holes that need hiding.

First Base: The One Lingering Question Mark

If there’s a spot that still nags at Boston’s projection, it’s first base. Triston Casas remains a tantalizing talent, but his recent injuries make his 2026 outlook feel uncertain and inject some volatility into the position.

ZiPS can’t ignore that the Red Sox got the worst first-base production of any 2025 playoff team. If Casas bounces back, the lineup’s ceiling jumps. If not, first base could be the lone soft spot in an otherwise resilient offense.

Depth, Development, and a Safer Contender Profile

Boston’s strong player-development pipeline allowed them to trade for Crochet, Gray, and Contreras without gutting the farm. ZiPS notes that this balance between present aggression and future sustainability is a big part of the Red Sox’s improved forecast.

In practical terms, Boston has both reinforcements and trade capital if the season calls for midyear moves. That’s a serious edge in a division where injuries and slumps can flip the standings in a matter of weeks.

Red Sox Positioned for a True Run at the AL East

Put it all together, and ZiPS projects the 2026 Boston Red Sox to:

Boston fans have waited through years of mediocrity, but this team finally looks built for something more. ZiPS doesn’t just see a playoff hopeful—there’s a real sense that Boston could be a legitimate contender with staying power.

 
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