The latest ZiPS projections give Royals fans a reason to hope for 2026. Kansas City looks like a team finally moving past its rebuilding phase, but it’s not exactly a juggernaut yet.
With a forecast of 82–86 wins, the Royals shape up as real AL Central contenders. They’re also on the fringe of the wild card chase, thanks to a young core, better depth, and pitching that’s, well, good enough to matter.
Royals Projection: From Rebuild to Relevance
ZiPS, one of the more respected projection systems out there, puts Kansas City in that awkward but exciting middle ground. Nothing’s guaranteed, but they’re right in the thick of things.
An 82–86 win range makes them a threat in the AL Central and keeps them hanging around the wild card bubble. That’s a big step up from where they’ve been.
This outlook comes from a mix of proven stars, new position-player depth, and a rotation that might not blow anyone away but should hold its own. It’s not perfect, but it’s progress.
Bobby Witt Jr. and Maikel Garcia Lead the Position-Player Core
Bobby Witt Jr. is still the face of the franchise. ZiPS thinks he’ll keep trending toward All-Star status, with his power, speed, and improved plate discipline driving the lineup.
Right there with him, Maikel Garcia looks set to lock down third base as an All-Star caliber player. ZiPS especially loves his defense, seeing him as a true Gold Glove-level guy at the hot corner, and thinks his bat is coming along enough to make him a key piece, not just a supporting act.
Fixing the 2025 Problem Spots: Second Base, Outfield, DH
The 2025 Royals had some glaring holes—second base, outfield, and DH. Heading into 2026, Kansas City’s tried to patch those spots with a mix of young talent, upside, and smarter platoons.
Gone are underperformers like Hunter Renfroe and MJ Melendez. The new approach is about getting more out of every roster spot, even if it’s not flashy.
Outfield: Incremental Gains, Not a Finished Product
ZiPS only sees a modest outfield improvement, but honestly, even a small step forward would help after 2025’s mess. Better defense and smarter usage patterns should make a difference.
With players like Drew Waters getting more chances, the outfield doesn’t look like a total disaster anymore. There’s still work to do, but it’s not the same old problem spot.
Second Base: India as Anchor, Massey as X-Factor
At second, Jonathan India brings veteran stability and gets on base. He’s not a superstar, but he’s steady, and that matters.
Michael Massey could bounce back from a rough 2025 and thrive as a super-sub. If he finds his swing and plays solid defense all over, the Royals’ depth and lineup options get a real lift.
DH and First Base: Caglianone’s Upside, Pasquantino’s Presence
Vinnie Pasquantino stays central at first base, offering on-base skills, power, and reliable production. ZiPS sees him as a rock in the middle of the order.
At DH, Jac Caglianone brings big upside with his bat. ZiPS thinks he’ll get better at the plate and add some punch, but he’s not a sure thing yet. There’s more hope than certainty with his development right now.
Catching Tandem and the Quiet Strength of the Rotation
The Royals are entering a transition behind the plate, trying to keep things steady while bringing in new blood. ZiPS expects a mix of a veteran and a prospect sharing time, which feels about right for where they are.
The rotation doesn’t have a Cy Young favorite, but it’s got enough arms to keep Kansas City competitive over the long haul. It’s not flashy, but it’s serviceable.
Jensen and Perez Share Catching Duties
Carter Jensen and franchise legend Salvador Perez will split catching duties. Jensen adds youth and upside, while Perez, even as he ages, still brings leadership, some pop, and a calming influence for pitchers.
It’s a good mix for now—development for the future, stability for the present.
Cole Ragans Headlines a Deep, Functional Rotation
Cole Ragans leads the staff, with ZiPS projecting around 2.2 WAR and a real shot at 3 WAR if he stays healthy. That’s a legit front-line arm for this squad.
Behind Ragans, the rotation features:
This group isn’t loaded with stars, but it’s deep and gets the job done. ZiPS tends to like that over a full season.
Bullpen: Middle-of-the-Pack, but Reliable Enough
The bullpen doesn’t look scary, but it’s not a weakness either. ZiPS puts them right in the middle-of-the-pack, with a few guys who can handle pressure even if there’s no obvious closer.
Key arms include:
They don’t have a big-name shutdown closer, and that might hurt in tight spots. But there’s enough quality here for the Royals to piece together a workable late-inning plan.
What ZiPS Says About the Royals’ Path to the Playoffs
ZiPS doesn’t see a juggernaut in Kansas City yet. Still, it spots a franchise that’s finally moved past the endless rebuild and looks ready to be consistently competitive.
To go from “relevant contender” to “clear postseason favorite,” ZiPS quietly points out the need for a few targeted upgrades. Maybe that’s a real late-inning bullpen weapon, another outfielder with pop, or a DH who’s more than just a warm body.
Right now, though, the projections give Royals fans something to hang onto: Kansas City isn’t doomed to irrelevance anymore.
Here is the source article for this story: 2026 ZiPS Projections: Kansas City Royals
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