2026 ZiPS Projections New York Mets Season Forecast

ZiPS just dropped its full 2026 projections. For New York Mets fans—who know the ups and downs all too well—the outlook feels refreshingly steady for once. The respected projection system actually gives the Mets a real shot in the NL East, mixing star power, rebound hopefuls, and better pitching depth into a roster that could stick around in the playoff hunt.

ZiPS Sees a Lineup Built to Compete

The offense stands out in the projection, with ZiPS calling it “extremely solid.” That’s not a label they throw around much. The lineup leans on two big names: Juan Soto and Francisco Lindor, both expected to put up elite numbers and lead the way for everyone else.

Core Stars and Bounce-Back Candidates

ZiPS seems especially optimistic about the supporting cast. Bo Bichette gets slotted in as a strong fit at third base, and if he settles in, he’s got real All-Star potential. The model also thinks Luis Robert Jr. and Marcus Semien could shake off recent struggles and bounce back, since their talent hasn’t vanished.

Francisco Alvarez and Luis Torrens are forecast as solid at catcher, giving the Mets some stability there. The designated hitter spot, though, looks like a weak link, with Mark Vientos expected to get most of the at-bats but not exactly light it up.

Depth and Development Still Matter

ZiPS doesn’t ignore the importance of depth, especially with a season as long as MLB’s. The Mets might not have stars at every position, but the mix of upside and experience could help if injuries or slumps hit.

Prospects and Supporting Pieces

Carson Benge could provide a jolt midseason, while Brett Baty offers some insurance as a more established option. ZiPS doesn’t see any surprise superstars here, but there’s enough competence to weather the usual rough patches.

A Rotation Trending in the Right Direction

The starting rotation looks like a clear step up from 2025. ZiPS calls the group “pretty good,” which, in projection-speak, means reliable and competitive most days.

Freddy Peralta and Key Arms

The Freddy Peralta trade really stands out in the numbers. ZiPS rates him highly, though there’s a little doubt about whether he can keep his BABIP so low. Clay Holmes’s move to the rotation seems legit after his 2025, giving the Mets another steady arm.

Kodai Senga, Sean Manaea, David Peterson, and Nolan McLean are all expected to pitch meaningful innings. That depth matters, even if ZiPS has concerns about guys like Christian Scott and Cooper Criswell further down. Jonathan Pintaro could be interesting if he figures out his command.

Bullpen Stability, Not Dominance

The bullpen isn’t elite, but ZiPS gives it an above-average grade. That’s usually enough for a team in the mix. Devin Williams is expected to bounce back, and Luke Weaver looks like a strong backup option.

Late-Inning Outlook

A.J. Minter should help out late, and Brooks Raley gets a surprisingly good projection. This group might not blow anyone away, but it should hold leads more often than not.

The Bottom Line for 2026

ZiPS never forgets how unpredictable baseball can get, especially when it comes to the Mets. The model highlights routine risks, but also those rare, catastrophic things that could throw everything off.

But after crunching the numbers, the outlook feels pretty strong: New York looks like a real NL East contender.

If you’re a Mets fan, you probably know what it’s like to hope more than expect. ZiPS, though, gives you something different—a bit of data-backed optimism that the Mets are actually set up to matter late into 2026.

 
Here is the source article for this story: 2026 ZiPS Projections: New York Mets