2026 ZiPS Projections Predict Bright Future for Seattle Mariners

The latest ZiPS projections show an exciting future for the 2026 Seattle Mariners. They look like a real American League powerhouse, with only a few potential weak spots and a strong shot at a championship.

This team leans on a deep rotation, a star catcher, and a young core that’s starting to come into its own. The upside jumps out—but you can see cracks that could widen if injuries hit the wrong players.

ZiPS Sees the Mariners as a True AL Contender

ZiPS, which is one of the more respected projection systems in baseball, puts the 2026 Mariners’ winning percentage somewhere in the .550–.580 range. That’s a 90–95 win pace over a full season.

This isn’t just “maybe we’ll make the playoffs” territory. It’s genuine contender ground, especially if Seattle can stay reasonably healthy.

Seattle’s mostly running it back with the core from 2025—a team that came one bad inning short of the World Series. ZiPS considers that continuity a real strength.

Running It Back with a Proven Core

The Mariners didn’t overhaul the roster. They doubled down on the group that already proved it can win in October.

ZiPS doesn’t spot many glaring weaknesses here, which is rare for a system that usually leans cautious. The plan is simple: keep the core, patch where you have to, and count on internal growth and health.

Josh Naylor and the Transformation at First Base

One big offseason decision was how to handle free agents. ZiPS thinks the Mariners got the big one right: they kept Josh Naylor, finally addressing a spot that’s been a sore point for years.

First base has been a revolving door in Seattle, with too many short-term fixes and not enough steady production. Naylor brings both on-base skills and power, right in his prime.

A Long-Standing Hole Finally Filled

By keeping Naylor, the Mariners plug a lineup hole that’s nagged them for almost a decade. ZiPS sees his projected numbers as a clear plus, and he fits the team’s competitive window.

For a win-now club, having a steady bat at first base is huge.

Cal Raleigh, Julio Rodríguez, and the Heart of the Lineup

The Mariners’ offense revolves around two stars: Cal Raleigh behind the plate and Julio Rodríguez in center field. ZiPS is high on both, though in different ways.

Raleigh’s projection is bold—even with some regression expected, he still shows up as an MVP-caliber player. That mix of power, plate discipline, and defense at catcher stands out.

Julio Rodríguez: Somehow Still Underrated

Rodríguez already looks like the franchise face, but ZiPS hints he’s still a bit underrated in national conversations. His numbers look strong everywhere, but they might not fully capture his all-around impact—defense, baserunning, and that presence in the lineup.

With Raleigh and Rodríguez, Seattle has a star core most teams would love.

Lineup Depth and the Infield Pipeline

Beyond the stars, ZiPS grades the Mariners’ lineup as average to above average overall. That’s exactly what you want when your rotation is loaded.

The system is especially intrigued by the infield talent bubbling up in the upper minors. Prospects like Ben Williamson and Colt Emerson offer flexibility and upside.

ZiPS likes the organization’s high-minors infield depth. It could help Seattle survive injuries or slumps without a major drop-off.

Colt Emerson as Potential J.P. Crawford Successor

Emerson probably needs more time, but ZiPS can already picture him as the long-term replacement for J.P. Crawford after 2026. That kind of foresight matters. Seattle isn’t just built for the present—they’re thinking ahead.

A Rotation Built to Dominate October

If you’re searching for the real foundation of these projections, check out the mound. ZiPS sees the Mariners’ rotation as one of baseball’s best, anchored by a five-man group that stacks up with anyone.

The projected 2026 rotation:

Elite Front Five, Thin Behind Them

This rotation gives Seattle a big edge in any playoff series. The worry is depth.

ZiPS flags the lack of proven arms behind these five as a real risk. One or two injuries could turn this from a strength into a question mark, especially over a long season.

Bullpen Strength at the Top, Questions at the Back

In the bullpen, ZiPS likes what it sees at the top but isn’t totally sold overall. The front end—Andrés Muñoz and Matt Brash—looks great.

When Seattle’s got a late lead, this pair brings high-octane, swing-and-miss stuff that can lock down games. But after Muñoz and Brash, things get shaky.

The back half of the bullpen is where volatility creeps in.

Relief Help Still on the Shopping List

ZiPS strongly recommends adding more reliable relief arms to steady the middle and late innings. For a team with real championship dreams, beefing up the bullpen—especially with arms that throw strikes—could be the difference in October.

The Margins: Catching Help and Outfield Insurance

The top-line talent is impressive, but ZiPS points to a few smaller tweaks that could add sneaky value. None of these are blockbuster moves, but together, they could mean a few extra wins.

Two spots stand out:

Where the Real Risk Lies

ZiPS makes it pretty clear: the Mariners’ biggest worries aren’t about whether their stars can hang. The real concerns are all about pitching depth and outfield health.

If Seattle can patch up those spots and sidestep a rash of injuries, things look promising. The projections put them right in the thick of it—one of the American League’s elite, with a real shot at finally bringing a championship to the Pacific Northwest.

 
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