Tigers vs Mariners ALDS Game 5 Odds and Model Picks

Game 5 of the 2025 ALDS between the Detroit Tigers and Seattle Mariners is shaping up to be a wild, winner-take-all showdown in Seattle. With the series tied 2-2 after Detroit’s blowout win in Game 4, both teams will throw everything they’ve got at each other for a spot in the ALCS against the Toronto Blue Jays.

This matchup brings some fascinating pitching duels, red-hot hitters, and betting angles that’ll have fans and analysts buzzing.

ALDS Game 5: High Stakes at T-Mobile Park

Friday night’s game happens at T-Mobile Park, a place where the Mariners have looked nearly unbeatable all year. Seattle’s 52-31 home record is one of the league’s best, and they’ve thrived as home underdogs too, going 8-4 in that spot.

Oddsmakers might lean Detroit, but you’d be bold to count out the Mariners here.

Pitching Matchup Breakdown

Seattle hands the ball to George Kirby (10-8, 4.21 ERA), who lives and dies by his command and isn’t afraid to pound the strike zone. His challenge: slow down a Tigers lineup that just scored nine runs in Game 4.

Detroit counters with their ace, Tarik Skubal (13-6, 2.21 ERA). Skubal’s been lights out all year, racking up strikeouts and giving Detroit a real shot every time he pitches.

Key Offensive Performances

Both teams have leaned on their stars when it matters. For Seattle, Cal Raleigh has been on fire, hitting a scorching .438 with four RBI and seven hits.

Shortstop J.P. Crawford has chipped in, batting .300 and delivering a clutch home run that shifted the series momentum.

Detroit’s Hot Bats

Detroit’s bats have answered back. Veteran Javier Báez exploded for nine hits and four RBI in Game 4, almost single-handedly carrying the Tigers to a blowout win.

Spencer Torkelson keeps driving in runs, leading Detroit with six RBI this postseason. The mix of experienced hitters and young power makes Detroit’s lineup tough to relax against.

Betting Outlook: Odds and Predictions

Right now, DraftKings Sportsbook lists Detroit as slight -120 favorites, with the Mariners at +100. The over/under is set at 6 runs, but SportsLine’s computer model actually projects a much higher-scoring game, averaging 8.2 runs in their simulations.

Factors Influencing the Wager

This one’s tricky for bettors, honestly:

• Seattle’s killer home record and underdog magic.
• Detroit’s knack for stringing wins together (64-50 after a victory).
• Big bats heating up on both teams.
• The wild gap between the model’s projected runs and the posted line.

What’s at Stake

The winner punches their ticket to the American League Championship Series against the Toronto Blue Jays, a team loaded with power and pitching depth.

Seattle’s chasing another chapter in their postseason story, while Detroit’s hoping to ride pitching and timely hitting all the way to the next round.

Final Thoughts Heading into Game 5

Everything about this game screams high drama. It’s a blend of elite pitching and clutch hitting.

Playoff tension only gets more intense with a winner-advances scenario. Skubal takes the mound for Detroit, hoping to quiet the Seattle bats.

Kirby and the Mariners will try to ride the crowd’s energy and pull off an upset. Whether you’re a diehard, just tuning in, or maybe even betting, Friday night feels like it could deliver some classic October baseball.

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