Blue Jays vs Mariners Game 3: Best ALCS Betting Picks

The Seattle Mariners are making waves in the ALCS. Much of that momentum comes from the unexpected dominance of their pitching rotation.

With a collective ERA of 2.38 heading into Game 3 against the Toronto Blue Jays, the spotlight’s squarely on George Kirby. He’s a right-hander with playoff poise, pinpoint control, and a strikeout rate that’s catching everyone’s attention.

Seattle comes home holding a series lead. Their bullpen’s rested, and the stage is set for Kirby to break out in front of an absolutely electric home crowd.

Seattle’s Pitching Rotation Steals the Show

Honestly, not many people saw Seattle’s pitching staff becoming the biggest force in the ALCS. But through tense games and high-pressure innings, they’ve managed to keep opposing bats quiet.

They’re allowing just over two earned runs per nine innings. Their work hasn’t just been efficient—it’s felt ruthless at times.

George Kirby’s Postseason Impact

Kirby hasn’t picked up a win in either of his two divisional series appearances. Still, his outings have been impressive.

Across 10 innings in the playoffs, he’s posted a wild 35% strikeout rate. In one marathon 15-inning game, he fanned six hitters with just 66 pitches, showing he can thrive even when things get weird.

Seattle’s bullpen got an extra day off, and now the series heads back to their place. Kirby’s likely to pitch deeper into Game 3.

That could mean more chances to rack up strikeouts, which is quickly becoming a bigger part of his game.

Breaking Down Kirby’s Pitching Arsenal

People don’t usually call him a pure strikeout pitcher, but the numbers this year suggest otherwise. In 2025, Kirby had his best strikeout season yet, averaging 9.8 strikeouts per nine innings.

He paired that with elite control, shown by a 4.72 K/BB ratio. Four of his six pitches get whiff rates over 30%, so hitters have plenty to worry about.

Fastball and Slider: Toronto’s Kryptonite?

Toronto’s hitters like to attack fastballs. Kirby knows this, and his fastball isn’t ordinary—it has a 23.4% put-away rate, so it gets strikeouts nearly a quarter of the time in two-strike counts.

His slider’s even nastier, boasting a 31.2% whiff rate. That’s a direct shot at a soft spot in the Blue Jays’ swing tendencies and could make these two pitches the real story in Game 3.

The Betting Angle

If you’re tracking the game and the sportsbook, Kirby’s recent run makes the strikeout prop pretty tempting. He’s cleared 4.5 strikeouts in five straight starts and has hit that mark in 60% of his outings this year.

At -114 on FanDuel, oddsmakers say it’s close to a coin flip, but the trends—and this particular matchup—give the over some extra appeal.

Why the Over Makes Sense

If Kirby goes deeper thanks to bullpen rest and keeps missing bats with his mix of pitches, 5+ strikeouts feels like a real possibility. The Blue Jays’ aggressive swings, plus his control and pitch variety, might just give bettors an edge in Game 3.

Key Takeaways

Heading into Game 3, George Kirby’s got confidence and a setting that really works for him. Seattle’s rotation is beating expectations right now.

Kirby’s efficiency and those recent strikeout gains? They give the Mariners a real shot to keep Toronto’s bats quiet.

• Seattle rotation: 2.38 ERA in the ALCS heading into Game 3
• George Kirby: 35% strikeout rate in 10 postseason innings
• Strikeout weapons: Four pitches with whiff rates over 30%
• Fastball put-away rate: 23.4%
• Slider whiff rate: 31.2%
• Betting trend: Over 4.5 strikeouts in five straight starts

All eyes are on Kirby as the Mariners try to build on their ALCS momentum. If his command holds and the fastball-slider mix keeps Toronto off balance, Seattle’s pitching could really take center stage.

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