FanGraphs Mailbag November 29, 2025: Trades, Free Agents, Projections

This article dives into a wild stretch of baseball news wrapped around a national holiday, with Dylan Cease’s huge new contract with the Toronto Blue Jays at the center. There’s also a bunch of unexpected offseason moves to chew on.

It takes a closer look at FanGraphs’ quirky holiday coverage policy, what’s inside its Members-only content, and why die-hard fans might want to get a peek behind the curtain.

Dylan Cease’s Blockbuster Deal with the Blue Jays

Even on major holidays, some stories just can’t wait. That’s what happened on Thanksgiving 2025, when Dylan Cease agreed to a seven-year, $210 million contract with the Toronto Blue Jays.

The timing forced FanGraphs, which usually “goes dark” on holidays, to break its own rule and cover the story.

Cease’s deal instantly became the defining move of the Blue Jays’ offseason. A seven-year commitment at that price shows Toronto sees him as a long-term rotation anchor, not just a temporary fix.

For a team that’s flirted with contention but stumbled in October, investing in a top starter sends a message—they’re not messing around.

Why This Signing Broke FanGraphs’ Holiday Rule

FanGraphs usually keeps things quiet on Thanksgiving, letting staff take a break since most readers are with family, not scanning wRC+ charts. But the Cease contract was just too big to ignore.

When a frontline starter signs for over $200 million, fans and analysts want context right away. People want to know how Cease’s pitch mix will play in the AL East, what his projections look like for seven years, and how this fits in the broader pitching market.

Those are the questions FanGraphs exists to answer—holiday or not.

An Offseason Already Full of Surprises

The Cease signing didn’t happen in isolation. The offseason was already buzzing with creative deals, including trades that would’ve sounded like pure fantasy a few years ago.

Among the biggest headlines: a National League–American League swap and a move involving a recent marquee free agent.

Sonny Gray Traded to the Red Sox

The St. Louis Cardinals made waves by trading Sonny Gray to the Boston Red Sox. Gray, who was just a key part of St. Louis’ rotation, now heads to the AL East.

He’ll have to test his command and pitchability against a division known for power lineups and hitter-friendly parks. For Boston, bringing in Gray looks like a push to finally stabilize a rotation that’s been searching for answers.

For St. Louis, moving a top starter suggests they’re willing to re-tool on the fly, even if it means shaking up their long-term plan.

Mets–Rangers Blockbuster: Brandon Nimmo for Marcus Semien

Even more surprising was a true one-for-one swap: the New York Mets and Texas Rangers trading former All-Stars Brandon Nimmo and Marcus Semien. Star-for-star trades like this are almost extinct in today’s world of asset management and surplus value.

The news hit hard. The author remembers hearing about it early Monday morning while traveling from Italy to New York—proof of just how jarring the deal was.

For the Mets, Semien brings power and stability to the infield. For the Rangers, Nimmo offers on-base skills, defense, and some much-needed balance in the outfield.

World Baseball Classic Buzz: Matt Harvey and Team Italy

On top of the MLB chaos, there was some international intrigue too. Rumors popped up about Matt Harvey possibly suiting up for Team Italy in the next World Baseball Classic.

Harvey, once the face of the Mets’ rotation and one of the most electric arms in baseball, still draws attention. The idea of him pitching for Italy adds a human-interest twist to an already fascinating WBC field.

It’s another reminder that the tournament continues to attract players with all kinds of heritage and stories.

Inside the FanGraphs Members-Only Mailbag

This week’s big feature at FanGraphs wasn’t just about trades or signings. The main mailbag actually went in a different direction, steering clear of the Cease deal and those headline trades.

Instead, it focused on bigger, evergreen questions—the kinds of topics that matter even when the news cycle cools down.

Topics: Baseball Movies, JJ Wetherholt, and Offense vs. Runs

The Members-only mailbag tackled three main topics:

  • Baseball movies: A look at the classics, what themes stick, and why some baseball films just hit differently for fans.
  • JJ Wetherholt: Breaking down the promising player, his skills, and how his tools might translate as he moves up.
  • Team runs vs. individual production: A deeper dive into the value of team runs compared to a player’s isolated offensive stats—a debate that sits at the heart of modern baseball analytics.
  • These questions don’t fade with the latest transaction. They help fans dig into baseball’s stories, its prospects, and the analytical thinking behind scoring runs and building a roster.

    Why FanGraphs Membership Matters

    All of this mailbag content stays exclusive to FanGraphs Members, and honestly, that’s intentional. The site leans more and more on subscription support to keep up deep, data-driven coverage all season and even during the quiet months.

    Members get a bunch of real perks, like:

  • Ad-free browsing for a cleaner, faster reading experience.
  • Enhanced data tools that let you dig into advanced stats and customize your searches.
  • Custom reports so you can tailor info for your own research or just to satisfy your curiosity as a fan.
  • But let’s be honest, the biggest thing? Membership means you’re backing a staff that’ll drop everything—even during the holidays—to break down a Dylan Cease mega-deal or unravel a surprise blockbuster trade. In an offseason this wild, having sharp analysis ready when you need it feels pretty crucial if you’re serious about understanding the modern game.

     
    Here is the source article for this story: FanGraphs Weekly Mailbag: November 29, 2025

    Scroll to Top