San Francisco Giants Near Deal to Sign Tyler Mahle

The San Francisco Giants are making another notable move to shore up their pitching staff. They’re closing in on a one-year agreement with veteran right-hander Tyler Mahle.

This deal lines up with the Giants’ offseason approach. They want experienced arms on short-term deals, but they’re still keeping long-term payroll flexibility in mind.

Let’s take a closer look at what Mahle brings. Why did the Giants go this route, and what does it say about their bigger picture?

Giants Closing In on Tyler Mahle Deal

The Giants are reportedly near a one-year contract with Tyler Mahle. He’ll get $10 million guaranteed, with incentives that could push it close to $13 million.

At 31, Mahle is the type of pitcher San Francisco seems to like this winter. He’s a veteran with some upside, but there’s no big multi-year risk attached.

This move comes as the Giants try to stabilize a rotation that’s looking thinner after Justin Verlander left in free agency. With Logan Webb and Robbie Ray as the only locked-in 2026 starters, grabbing another experienced arm made sense.

Mahle’s 2025 Results vs. the Underlying Metrics

On the surface, Mahle’s 2025 season with the Texas Rangers looked strong. In limited action, he posted a 2.18 ERA and seemed to have found his old form after several injury-plagued years.

But dig a little deeper, and the numbers get less rosy. Advanced metrics suggest his run prevention may have outpaced his actual performance:

Honestly, it’s possible Mahle’s ERA was more outlier than real bounce-back.

Health and Performance Concerns

Durability is the biggest question with Mahle. Over the last three seasons, he’s only managed 125 innings, often sidelined by injuries that broke up his rhythm.

His recent medical history isn’t comforting:

Declining Stuff Adds to the Risk

Mahle used to be a reliable strikeout guy in Cincinnati. Now, his punchout rate is down to 19.1 percent.

His fastball velocity averaged about 92 mph last season. That’s not overpowering, and it’s a concern for someone coming off multiple arm issues.

Diminished velocity and strikeout ability really make you wonder if he can hold up for a full season.

How Mahle Fits the Giants’ Rotation Plans

The Giants’ moves this winter show a clear strategy. They’re avoiding big, long-term pitching contracts and instead going for shorter, lower-risk deals to patch immediate holes.

Besides Mahle, the team has made a couple other notable pitching additions:

Depth Still a Question Mark

Even with these moves, the rotation still feels a bit shaky. Robbie Ray has his own durability issues, and Mahle’s recent history suggests he’ll need careful workload management.

Landen Roupp could be in the mix if he’s healthy. Internal arms like Trevor McDonald and a handful of prospects might end up eating innings, too.

Payroll Impact and Bigger Picture

Payroll projections put the Giants at roughly $175 million for 2026. That’s before factoring in Mahle’s contract and a $17 million deferred payment to Blake Snell.

Once you add those in, San Francisco edges past last season’s $177 million payroll. The front office doesn’t seem rattled by that.

They’re leaning on the flexibility these short-term deals allow. The Mahle signing isn’t about locking in a franchise ace—it’s about stability, upside, and leaving doors open.

 
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