Toronto Blue Jays 2026 ZiPS Projections: Roster Outlook, Breakouts

The Toronto Blue Jays head into 2026 with a lingering sense that last year just wasn’t quite enough. ZiPS projections agree: this team’s built to contend. After coming painfully close to a World Series title in 2025, Toronto doubled down over the winter. They reshaped the roster and beefed up the pitching staff, which might even get stronger still. Let’s dig into why advanced metrics see the Blue Jays as legit favorites in the American League East.

ZiPS Sees a Title-Caliber Foundation

ZiPS doesn’t really care about stories or heartbreak, but it’s bullish on these Blue Jays. Toronto finished 2025 just two runs short of a championship. The numbers say that wasn’t a fluke. The club ranked second in the American League for total runs scored. That’s a sign of an offense that just kept wearing down opposing pitchers.

Blue Jays position players also led all of MLB with 44 FRV (Fielding Run Value) runs above average. That mix of run production and defensive value is the backbone of ZiPS’ optimism for 2026.

An “All-In” Front Office Approach

The front office didn’t waste time. Toronto handed out about $336 million in guaranteed contracts this offseason, blowing past the luxury tax threshold. For a team sometimes called too cautious, this move shouted that the window to win is right now.

Infield Changes Bring Balance Over Star Power

The infield looks different this year. Bo Bichette’s big bat is gone, but Toronto didn’t just try to swap him out one-for-one. Instead, they went for more balance, better defense, and flexibility in the lineup.

New Faces, Familiar Goals

Andrés Giménez and Ernie Clement will try to make up for much of Bichette’s value, especially on defense. At third, Japanese slugger Kazuma Okamoto brings real power and should be fine with the glove.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is still the anchor at first base. His numbers dipped a bit from his 2024 peak, but ZiPS expects him to be a star-level hitter who can carry the team for stretches.

Outfield Questions, But Adequate Depth

The corner outfield and DH spots feel a little unsettled. Anthony Santander and George Springer might split time, and both have their question marks. Still, ZiPS likes Toronto’s depth here.

League-Average Production Is Enough

Davis Schneider, Addison Barger, and Nathan Lukes add versatility and lineup coverage. They’re not projected to be stars, but ZiPS expects at least league-average production from this group. That’s enough, considering the roster’s overall strength.

Pitching: Strong, With Room to Improve

The biggest offseason splash might be on the mound. Adding Dylan Cease gives Toronto a scary one-two punch with Kevin Gausman. ZiPS also sees upside in young arm Trey Yesavage and a healthy Shane Bieber.

The Move That Could Decide the AL East

If José Berríos bounces back, the rotation looks even better. ZiPS hints that adding another steady starter—someone like Framber Valdez or Ranger Suárez—could really lock things in. That move might just tip the AL East in Toronto’s favor.

A Deep, Reliable Bullpen

The Blue Jays don’t have a superstar closer on paper, but their bullpen looks strong overall. ZiPS projects most of their relievers to keep ERAs under 4.00, which suggests they’ve got depth and a steady group instead of just relying on one or two big names.

Compared to their division rivals, ZiPS sees Toronto as about even with Boston. They’re also slightly ahead of the Yankees, at least for now.

 
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