When Will Trea Turner Become MLB’s Active Stolen Bases Leader?

The piece digs into Trea Turner’s bid to become the active stolen-base leader. It weighs his 2025 production, health history, and the challenges from Ketel Marte and José Altuve as 2026 approaches.

Turner’s got elite speed and base-running instincts. His durability and where he hits in the lineup could make or break this chase for a spot in baseball history.

Active-Lead Stakes: Turner, Marte, and Altuve

Turner heads into 2026 with 315 career stolen bases. That’s a hefty number, keeping him right in the mix among active players.

The race really depends on what Ketel Marte and José Altuve do next. Each of them brings a different kind of challenge for Turner’s path to the lead.

If Turner stays healthy, he’s still a problem for pitchers and catchers everywhere. But with these three in the mix, the leaderboard feels like it could flip at any moment.

Turner’s 2025 Baseline and 2026 Outlook

Turner’s efficiency and ability to stay on the field are at the heart of his chase. He’s swiped 315 bases on 368 tries—an 85.6% success rate, which is just wild among players with 300+ steals.

That kind of speed, paired with his knack for picking the right moment, has defined his career since he broke out in the big leagues. Back in 2023, Turner didn’t get caught stealing even once, and he once rattled off 41 steals in a row without getting nabbed. That’s not just fast—that’s smart.

• 315 career steals entering 2026
• 368 attempts on those steals
• 85.6% success rate (elite among 300+ steal players)
• Perfect 2023 season with unmatched efficiency
• 41-straight-steal streak in his prime

But 2024 wasn’t so kind. A hamstring injury held Turner to just 19 steals, which really shows how much his numbers depend on staying healthy.

If he can avoid the trainer’s table and keep getting on base, 2026 could be a chance for him to make a late-career run at the leaderboard. Of course, nothing’s guaranteed.

The Marte Variable and How It Shapes the Race

Marte’s still-active status might be the biggest thing standing between Turner and the lead. If Marte keeps playing, Turner would need to swipe 47 bags in 2026 to jump him—something he’s never pulled off in a single season.

That’s a steep hill to climb. Marte kind of holds the keys to the top spot right now, and every time Turner reaches base for the Phillies, it matters just a little more.

• If Marte stays active, Turner must approach a 47-steal season to overtake Marte
• Turner’s peak career steal total is 46 (achieved in 2017)
• Marte’s ongoing status effectively shapes Turner’s ceiling for 2026

Altuve’s Pace, Turner’s Phillies Edge, and the Health Factor

If Marte retires or steps away from active play, José Altuve jumps in as Turner’s closest rival for the league’s active stolen-base leader. Altuve’s speed has slipped lately, with just about 14 steals per season since 2021. That gives Turner a shot, but honestly, it’s tough to predict how things will shake out.

Turner’s time with the Phillies gives him steady playing time and lineups built to boost his base-running chances. That’s a big deal in this race.

• Altuve’s steal rate has dropped since 2021 (around 14 per season)
• Turner’s durability and frequent plate appearances give him more chances to steal
• Philadelphia’s lineup often puts Turner in scoring position with strong OBP and plenty of run producers behind him

Turner’s record—lots of games played, high plate appearances, steady hits, and plenty of times on base since 2018—backs up his shot at becoming the active stolen-base leader. His 2025 batting average projections sit way up there, so he should keep getting on base even if he doesn’t walk a ton.

If Turner stays healthy and keeps finding ways to reach base, he’s got a real chance to climb to the top of the active steals list. Of course, a lot depends on what Marte and Altuve do next.

 
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