Guardians Playoff Race 2025: Clinching Scenarios & Updates (Sept. 25)

The Cleveland Guardians are right on the edge of locking up their postseason spot. They could clinch as soon as Thursday night.

If Houston loses to Oakland in the afternoon and Cleveland beats Detroit, the Guardians will grab at least the No. 3 Wild Card spot. That’s a wild turnaround considering just two months ago, projections gave Cleveland less than a 1% shot at October.

Now, after a stunning surge, the Guardians are staring down not just a playoff berth, but the AL Central crown. Sometimes, baseball just throws you a curveball like that.

The Magic Numbers and Playoff Scenarios

Cleveland’s magic number for a playoff berth sits at two. Any mix of Guardians wins and Astros losses totaling two will send them to the postseason.

To clinch the AL Central, the magic number is three. That can happen with a blend of Cleveland wins and Detroit losses.

Potential Path to Clinching Thursday

Here’s the cleanest path for Thursday: Houston falls to Oakland and Cleveland knocks off Detroit. If those two things happen, the Guardians are in, no more waiting around.

After that, they can zero in on the division title.

From Long Shot to Division Favorite

Back in early August, Fangraphs had Cleveland at less than a 1% postseason chance. Now, as September winds down, things look pretty different.

Fangraphs projects Cleveland to finish with 88 wins and gives them an 80.1% shot at winning the division. That’s a huge swing, driven by a red-hot run since the All-Star break.

An AL-Best Surge Since July

Since July 7, the Guardians have put together an American League-best record of 46-24. They’ve gone 32-18 after the trade deadline.

In their last 13 games, they’ve piled up 12 wins. That’s the kind of streak that makes people rethink everything they thought about this team.

The Tigers’ Freefall Helps Cleveland’s Cause

While Cleveland’s been on fire, Detroit’s been in a tailspin. The Tigers led the division for 155 straight days, but now they’ve dropped eight in a row and 11 of their last 12.

This collapse has thrown the door wide open for the Guardians to take control of the AL Central.

Contrasting Fortunes in a Crucial Stretch

Detroit’s bullpen has been shaky and their bats have gone cold. Cleveland pounced on that chance.

Honestly, the timing couldn’t be better for a team that’s rolling into the season’s final stretch with real swagger.

Thursday’s Matchup: Messick vs. Detroit’s Bullpen

Thursday’s big game features rookie lefty Parker Messick making his seventh Major League start. Messick’s looked composed out there, and now he gets a Detroit lineup that’s really struggled in September.

The Tigers are probably going with a bullpen game, mixing and matching arms to try to slow down a Cleveland offense that’s been tough to handle lately.

Opportunity for a Statement Game

If Messick delivers, he could lock in his postseason role. Another big night from Cleveland’s lineup would send a message: the Guardians aren’t just sneaking into October—they’re showing up to make noise.

Cleveland’s Rich Playoff History

If the Guardians clinch this week, it’ll be their 15th playoff appearance since 1995 and maybe their 13th AL Central title. Not many franchises can match that kind of consistent run, especially with so much roster turnover.

Cleveland’s knack for reloading and staying in the fight says a lot about their front office and player development. They’ve built something that just keeps working, year after year.

Building Toward Another October Run

Fans at Progressive Field can feel the excitement in the air. A playoff berth isn’t just a hope anymore—it’s the bare minimum most people expect.

The Guardians look sharp, and with the matchups ahead, they could roll into October as one of the most dangerous teams in baseball. That’s wild, considering so many folks had already counted them out earlier this season.

Thursday’s game? It’s not just another date on the calendar. Cleveland gets a real shot to turn what seemed impossible into something real.

Momentum matters in baseball, maybe more than anywhere else. Right now, the Guardians have it, and then some.

Would you like me to also provide **SEO keyword suggestions** to maximize this blog post’s reach in search engines?

 
Here is the source article for this story: Guardians playoff race 2025: MLB Playoff clinching scenarios and what you need to know today, Thursday, Sept. 25