Kodai Senga Reality Mets Fans Must Accept: What to Expect

The 2025 season was supposed to continue Kodai Senga’s rise as one of MLB’s most intriguing aces. Instead, it’s turned into a year of uncertainty for the New York Mets’ right-hander.

He got off to an encouraging start. Then a hamstring injury set him back, and his return has been rough—velocity’s down, results are worse, and now everyone’s wondering if we’ve already seen Senga at his best.

Kodai Senga’s Injury Setback Alters His Season’s Trajectory

Before the hamstring strain, Senga flashed the dominance that made him an All-Star in 2023. His “ghost fork” baffled hitters, and his fastball kept batters honest.

Once he landed on the injured list, though, his rhythm disappeared. He hasn’t really found that edge again.

Post-Injury Performance Decline

Since coming back, Senga’s stuff just doesn’t look right. It’s not just rust or shaky mechanics.

His four-seam fastball velocity has dropped from an average of 95+ mph to around 93 mph. That small drop has changed everything about how hitters approach him.

The Domino Effect of Lost Velocity

Pitchers at this level live on razor-thin margins. When Senga lost two miles per hour, hitters suddenly had more time to react.

That extra split-second has led to more solid contact and made his off-speed pitches less effective.

The Ghost Fork Isn’t Fooling Hitters

The ghost fork used to produce a whiff rate over 19%. Now it’s dropped below 15% this season.

With hitters timing his fastball better, they’re laying off pitches that dive out of the zone. What was once a terrifying strikeout weapon is now a lot less intimidating.

Mets Face a Difficult Decision

Some people have floated the idea of sending Senga to the minors for a reset. Maybe that would take off some pressure, but it doesn’t really address the main problem.

Velocity loss, especially for pitchers in their 30s, is tough to reverse. That’s just the reality.

Demotion Unlikely to Restore Velocity

A stint in Triple-A might give Senga space to tinker, but it won’t magically bring back his 95 mph fastball. The Mets have to figure out how to use him with what he’s got now.

A Path Forward: Reinvention

If Senga wants to stay at the top, he’ll have to adapt. Plenty of veteran pitchers have survived by relying on movement, command, and mixing up their pitches instead of just blowing hitters away.

Possible Adjustments to Pitch Mix

Senga could lean more on his cutter or slider to keep hitters guessing. Maybe he should use the ghost fork less often to make it more of a surprise.

• Increase cutter usage to jam hitters and get weak contact.
• Focus on hitting spots with the fastball instead of trying to overpower everyone.
• Keep the ghost fork as an occasional out pitch, not something hitters can sit on.

The Reality Mets Fans Must Face

The 2023 All-Star version of Senga might not come back. That doesn’t mean he can’t still help the rotation, but everyone needs to adjust their expectations.

This season is a mental test as much as a physical one. There’s a lot riding on how he handles it.

From Power Pitcher to Precision Veteran?

The Mets have a lot riding on Senga right now. They’re hoping he’ll steady the rotation, but there’s a chance he shifts into more of a mid-rotation role than a true ace.

Can he pull off that transition? Honestly, that’s probably what’ll shape his impact over the next few seasons.

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