This article digs into FanGraphs’ latest ZiPS 2026 preseason projections. Using a huge Monte Carlo simulation, ZiPS estimates win totals, division races, and playoff odds across Major League Baseball.
Instead of bold predictions, ZiPS offers a probabilistic snapshot of where teams stand heading into 2026. It highlights which contenders look steady, who’s a little shaky, and where wild swings could upend an entire division.
How ZiPS Builds Its 2026 MLB Projections
ZiPS has earned its reputation as one of baseball’s most respected forecasting systems. Its updated 2026 preseason run leans hard into scale and probability.
FanGraphs simulated a million seasons to get median win totals and playoff odds. It’s all about outcomes, not certainty.
The Mechanics Behind the Numbers
The model blends percentile-based player projections, carefully curated depth charts, and simulated injury distributions. When injuries hit, playing time automatically shifts, mimicking how real rosters change over a season.
The result isn’t a single “expected” finish. Instead, you get a range of plausible futures, which feels honest given how much can go sideways in a season.
American League Outlook: Parity and Fragility
The American League has several divisions where the gap between first and fourth is paper-thin. Health and breakout performances could end up deciding who’s still playing in October.
AL East: A Four-Team Knife Fight
The AL East looks like baseball’s toughest division. The Blue Jays and Red Sox are tied at a 90-win median, with Toronto bringing more upside and Boston offering a safer floor.
The Orioles (88 wins) and Yankees (87) aren’t far behind. Rays fans, sorry—Tampa Bay lags at 75. ZiPS suggests tiny edges—bullpen depth, bench quality, injury luck—could swing the whole thing.
AL Central: Weak, Tight, and Uncertain
The AL Central is close but lacks a true powerhouse. The Tigers and Royals both project at 83 wins.
Cleveland (79) and Minnesota (77) sit just behind. Detroit’s the favorite, but ZiPS warns: an injury to Tarik Skubal could unravel the Tigers’ chances.
The White Sox, at 69 wins, are still deep in rebuild territory.
AL West: Seattle on Top, Chaos Behind
The Mariners lead at 88 wins, barely ahead of the Astros (87). The Rangers fall behind at 80 wins.
The A’s get a 74-win projection, and ZiPS hints at some sneaky upside there. The Angels, at 68, look set for another long, frustrating year in Anaheim.
National League Outlook: Clear Kings and Crowded Chasers
The NL has more obvious favorites, but the middle class feels unpredictable—there’s room for surprises.
NL East: Phillies Lead, Mets Lurk
The Phillies top the NL East with a 91-win median. The Mets follow at 89.
The Braves project to 86 wins, so maybe not a collapse, but definitely not their peak. Miami (76) and Washington (63) are way back, making this a three-team race unless something wild happens.
NL Central: Cubs Edge Brewers
ZiPS gives the Cubs an 87-win projection, just enough to stay ahead of the Brewers at 86. After that, there’s a steep drop to the Reds, Cardinals, and Pirates.
Unless someone surprises, those three probably won’t matter much in the standings.
NL West: Dodgers Tower Over Everyone
The Dodgers rule the NL West with a massive 96-win median. They’re the powerhouse here, no question.
Behind them, the Giants (84), Padres (83), and Diamondbacks (81) are bunched together. The Rockies, at just 61 wins, look like they’re in for a rough ride.
What ZiPS Really Tells Us About 2026
ZiPS points out that median standings compress variance. This hides just how wide the range of outcomes can get.
Many divisions look top-heavy but feel fragile. For several teams, their upside depends on health or a breakout year from their younger guys.
Here’s something interesting: long-term projection error seems uncorrelated year to year. If ZiPS missed the mark last season, it doesn’t mean it’ll mess up again.
The 2026 MLB season could get wild. ZiPS just offers a probabilistic map—definitely not a crystal ball.
Here is the source article for this story: The Late-January ZiPS Projected Standings Update
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