Predicting BBWAA Hall of Fame Elections: Five-Year Forecast

This blog post unpacks Jay Jaffe’s thoughtful—and, as he admits, imperfect—effort to predict the next five years of BBWAA Hall of Fame voting. Using decades of voting data, recent election surprises, and shifting voter behavior, the article digs into why Cooperstown predictions have gotten so unpredictable. It also shines a light on the players who might shake up future ballots.

The Increasingly Unpredictable Nature of Hall of Fame Voting

Jay Jaffe has covered baseball and its institutions for three decades, and he’s quick to admit that Hall of Fame predictions have never been messier. His latest analysis looks five years ahead, but he starts with a caution: recent BBWAA results have blown up old assumptions.

The elections of Carlos Beltrán and Andruw Jones alone caught most people off guard. Those weren’t just flukes.

They show how quickly Hall of Fame voting can shift for reasons that go way beyond stats on the field. Changes in eligibility rules, cultural shifts, and evolving voter priorities have turned the process on its head.

Rule Changes and Cultural Shifts Matter

The Hall’s move to cut eligibility from 15 years to 10 sped things up. Now, candidates can’t wait around for a decade and a half hoping for momentum. Voters have to make their calls sooner, and the decisions feel more final.

Then there’s Joe Morgan’s letter urging voters to reject PED-linked candidates. That plea hardened voting attitudes almost overnight.

Off-field drama has only gotten more important. Scandals like the Astros’ sign-stealing mess or personal misconduct allegations have pushed voters to take the character clause way more seriously than they used to.

A New Fast Track to Cooperstown

Jaffe points out something pretty wild: there’s a new, speedier pipeline to the Hall. Since 2014, an eye-popping 18 players have made it in on their first ballot.

That’s a big change from the old days. And even players with rough starts aren’t out of luck anymore.

Late Momentum Is No Longer Rare

In the past, a weak debut on the ballot was usually a death sentence. Not now.

Jaffe lists several cases where players went from barely a blip to eventual induction. Andruw Jones is the wildest example—he started at just 7.3%, the lowest ever for a BBWAA inductee.

That kind of turnaround makes long-term predictions feel like a guessing game. Voters seem more open to changing their minds than ever.

Evaluating Jaffe’s Forecasting Track Record

Jaffe looks back at his own five-year forecasts and doesn’t sugarcoat it. He’s usually close when predicting the next election, but things get fuzzy further out.

His biggest miss? He tends to underestimate how fast some candidates catch fire and hit that 75% mark.

Why Long-Term Projections Fall Short

Faster voting cycles, new analytics, and changing standards make multi-year forecasts shaky at best. Jaffe says today’s Hall electorate is a lot more unpredictable than it was even ten years ago.

Spotlight on the 2026 Hall of Fame Ballot

For 2026, Jaffe sees a strong group of newcomers and returning names who’ll get most of the buzz.

Buster Posey Leads the Class

Even though Buster Posey didn’t play forever, his JAWS numbers are fantastic—especially once you count pitch framing. Jaffe thinks Posey’s a lock for first-ballot induction thanks to his peak, leadership, and all those rings.

Jon Lester will get attention for his 200 wins and October heroics, but his WAR and JAWS are a notch below some of the returning candidates.

Uncertain Futures and Final Thoughts

Jaffe thinks Omar Vizquel will fall off the ballot entirely because of serious off-field allegations.

Among the returning candidates, Chase Utley looks like the most likely next inductee. Pettitte and Hernández are still on different but believable paths.

 
Here is the source article for this story: Peering Into the Crystal Ball: The Next Five Years of BBWAA Hall of Fame Elections