Sunday MLB Props: Six Low-Scoring Bets to Target March 29

< p>Sunday MLB betting gets a rigorous rundown from Derek Carty. He’s the ESPN fantasy baseball writer behind THE BAT X projections.

This piece distills his latest prop recommendations for March 29, 2026. It shows how advanced inputs—talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, and catcher pitch-framing—translate into betting projections and expected value (EV) figures.

Read on for the standout bets and why they carry value. Carty also flags trend notes as context for bettors, which is always helpful if you’re looking to get an edge.

How THE BAT X informs Sunday betting decisions

THE BAT X integrates a broad set of variables beyond just raw batter skill. It considers park factors and bullpen usage to generate EV estimates that help bettors spot edges.

Carty points out that trends can guide framing bets, but they’re not guaranteed predictors. Especially early in the season, data might still reflect last year’s landscape, so there’s some uncertainty there.

The projections highlight team tendencies for the day. That gives readers a sharper lens on expected outcomes and risk versus reward.

Prop bets spotlight for Sunday

Here are Carty’s favorite player-prop picks for today. You’ll find odds, probability, and EV for each, plus a quick note on the situational factors that might nudge things one way or the other.

• Nico Hoerner — UNDER 1.5 H+R+RBI at +123, with a 54% hit probability and $20.20 EV. Hoerner’s flyball exit velocity is way down in the fourth percentile, so it’s tough to expect much in terms of extra bases or big run production here.
• Edouard Julien — UNDER 0.5 H at +109, with a 57% probability and $19.65 EV. Julien’s got deep left-field fences to deal with, and he tends to hit fly balls the other way, which just doesn’t help his chances for even a single.
• Gary Sanchez — UNDER 0.5 H at +140, with a 49% chance and $17.24 EV. The White Sox outfield actually grades out really well today, so they’re likely to scoop up any shallow hits and make strikeouts sting a bit more.
• Tatsuya Imai — OVER 5.5 strikeouts at +102, with a 59% probability and $19.22 EV. Houston strikes out more than almost anyone (fourth-most in the league), so Imai’s got a real shot to clear this number if he keeps his stuff sharp.
• Connelly Early — UNDER 6.5 strikeouts at -155, with a 72% chance and $29.65 EV. Early’s probably capped at about 85 pitches, so even if the matchup looks good, his strikeout ceiling just isn’t there.
• Shota Imanaga — UNDER 2.5 earned runs at -173, with a 71% chance and $21.68 EV. Wrigley Field’s outfield fences usually help keep runs down, which gives the under a little extra support.

Carty points out that while trends can be interesting, they’re not everything—especially early in the season when numbers still echo last year. He’s leaning on a blend of talent, ballpark quirks, defensive setups, and bullpen strength, not just averages.

There are a few team-level trends worth keeping in mind too. The Angels have seen their road totals go under seven straight times. The Marlins moneyline has cashed 11 out of 15. And the Cubs first-five run line? That’s hit in 14 of 20 home games.

Honestly, it’s all about balance. Lean on THE BAT X projections and EV values, but don’t forget there’s always a little chaos in early-season data. For those following Derek Carty or just looking for an edge, Sunday’s board brings a mix of unders on hits and runs, plus an over or two on strikeouts—all rooted in sharp risk-taking and a good read on the context.

 
Here is the source article for this story: MLB betting tips for Sunday: Six prop bets to make as low scoring expected