Revisiting Our MLB Trade Grades from the 2024 Deadline

The MLB trade deadline always sparks a rush of opinions. Analysts, fans, and front offices scramble to grade deals as soon as they happen.

But players change, and those first takes can age badly. The Athletic recently looked back at some of their own grades from last summer’s biggest trades.

With a year’s worth of hindsight, they tweaked their evaluations to better match what actually happened. It’s a good reminder—trades rarely reveal their true winners and losers right away.

The Price of Premature Optimism: Rays’ Deal Reassessed

The Tampa Bay Rays sent reliever Jason Adam to the San Diego Padres. In return, they got three young prospects: Dylan Lesko, Homer Bush Jr., and J.D. Gonzalez.

Back then, people loved the deal for Tampa Bay. Lesko was a hot pitching prospect, and the buzz around him drove a lot of that optimism.

Why the Rays’ Grade Changed

But a year later, things look different. Lesko’s development has stalled out, and Bush and Gonzalez haven’t impressed either.

What seemed like a smart rebuilding move feels less exciting now. Betting big on prospect hype can backfire, and that’s clearer in hindsight.

The evaluators dropped the Rays’ trade grade, since the returns so far have been pretty modest.

Amed Rosario to the Dodgers: A Stunning Decline

Another deal under the microscope: the Dodgers picking up infielder Amed Rosario. The move got a “B” at first—looked like a solid way to add depth to the lineup.

Sometimes, though, reality hits fast.

Lessons Learned From Rosario’s Short Stint

Rosario barely got a chance in Los Angeles. After just 12 plate appearances, the Dodgers let him go.

When a player gets released that quickly, it’s hard to call the trade anything but a miss. The Athletic’s writers dropped the Dodgers’ grade for this one to a “D.”

Orioles vs. Marlins: A Tale of Two Success Stories

The Orioles and Marlins swapped Trevor Rogers, Kyle Stowers, and Connor Norby. At first, the Marlins looked like the clear winners—they got two promising position players.

Baltimore, meanwhile, took a risk on Rogers, a pitcher with talent but not much to show for it at the time.

Performance Changes Everything

Fast forward a year, and both teams have something to smile about. Rogers turned into a force for Baltimore, posting a 1.53 ERA over six starts and shoring up their rotation.

The Orioles’ gamble paid off, and their trade grade jumped to a “B.” Meanwhile, Kyle Stowers exploded for Miami—.293 average, 19 home runs, and an All-Star nod.

Sometimes, trades really can work out for both sides, no matter how lopsided things look at first.

What Evaluators Must Keep in Mind

Several lessons jump out from these reassessments:

• Prospect hype can cloud judgment: Teams and analysts should try to temper their optimism when they value unproven prospects.
• Quick failures deserve harsh criticism: If a trade acquisition gets cut after barely contributing, that deal probably shows poor preparation or fit.
• Controllable pitching remains a prized asset: Teams often gamble on pitchers with upside, even if their recent track record is a little shaky.

 
Here is the source article for this story: What we got wrong: Looking back at our MLB trade grades from the 2024 deadline