Major League Baseball’s offseason is rolling, just not quite how folks expected. Total MLB free-agent spending is trailing last winter, but front offices are still making moves—just with new priorities in mind.
Pitching, especially in the bullpen and the middle of rotations, has dominated early action. Meanwhile, several big bats and international stars are waiting at the center of the next wave of deals.
MLB Free-Agent Spending Lags Behind Last Winter’s Frenzy
So far, teams have committed just under $1.4 billion in free agency. That’s a big number, but it’s still a steep drop from last year’s roughly $2.1 billion at this point.
The gap has people wondering if the market’s soft. League insiders expect a big surge as the offseason goes on and top-tier names finally sign.
Front offices are taking their time at the top of the market, weighing luxury-tax issues, long-term risk, and possible trades. The money’s there, but teams are spending it more strategically than they did a year ago.
Why the Slower Spending Pace Is Misleading
Headline numbers are down, but the market’s structure tells a different story. Teams are shifting resources into areas they trust more—like pitching depth and high-leverage relief.
This approach has changed the free-agent landscape. Once the remaining stars and international talents sign, the total spending could end up close to last year’s level.
Elite Hitters Waiting for the Dam to Break
The big names at the top of the hitting market are still waiting—but they’re definitely not undervalued. Kyle Tucker, Alex Bregman, Cody Bellinger, and Bo Bichette headline a patient group of position players.
These players aren’t in danger of their markets collapsing. Clubs are carefully mapping out their financial plans, just waiting for one big deal to set the standard for everyone else.
Kyle Tucker: The Crown Jewel of the Class
Many executives see Tucker as the premier offensive prize of this free-agent class. He’s probably the favorite to land the biggest contract of the winter.
Tucker blends power, on-base skills, and outfield defense—exactly the kind of cornerstone teams want for the long haul.
Bregman and Bellinger are both looking for long-term security after betting on themselves with shorter deals before. Bichette, still in his prime and playing a key position, has no reason to rush in a market that usually rewards offense-first shortstops.
Starting Pitching: Top Tier Quiet, Middle Market on Fire
The starting pitching market has split into two clear tiers. At the top, things slowed down after Dylan Cease grabbed his $210 million payday.
Below that, teams have chased reliable arms hard to steady their rotations. Even with the pause at the elite end, several front-line starters could move soon, pushed by leaguewide desperation for innings and impact.
Front-Line Arms Still in Play
The next batch of major deals will likely include names like:
With so many contenders hungry for pitching, it’s really about which team will stretch the furthest on years and dollars.
Mid-Rotation Arms Cash In
The mid-rotation market has exploded even as elite starters wait. Teams are paying up for:
It’s simple: injuries crush rotations every year, so general managers are after durability. That demand has pushed even modest back-end profiles into contract ranges that would’ve seemed wild a few winters back.
NPB Stars and the Posting Clock
Adding to the MLB free-agent pool is a fascinating group from Japan’s NPB. The posting system deadlines are making things urgent.
Once those windows close, clubs lose access to some of the winter’s most interesting bets. Beyond Imai, two position players are getting lots of attention.
Munetaka Murakami and Kazuma Okamoto: Power from Japan
Munetaka Murakami might be the most intriguing bat available. Teams love his elite raw power, though they do worry a bit about his swing-and-miss tendencies.
That hasn’t scared clubs off. If anything, it’s opened up different paths for a deal:
Kazuma Okamoto brings another power option, but Murakami’s upside puts him at the center of more aggressive bidding. With posting deadlines looming, both could spark a quick run of signings as teams scramble to avoid missing out.
Hitters Beyond the Top Tier Are Stuck in Neutral
Stars are set to cash in, but the secondary hitting market is ice-cold. Role players and back-end bats—platoon guys, bench pieces, and low-OBP sluggers—could be waiting until January or February.
Teams are happy to hunt for cheaper upside in trades, minor-league deals, or late-winter bargains instead of committing early to limited-profile hitters. That’s putting the squeeze on veterans without an everyday role.
Trade Market Stalemate Fuels Free-Agent Gridlock
The whole picture gets even messier thanks to a sluggish trade market. Big names are being discussed behind the scenes, but high asking prices have kept many blockbusters on ice.
Every big free-agent decision now comes with the question: is there a trade option that’s cheaper in dollars, even if it costs prospects? That’s slowed both sides and added to the current gridlock.
Relievers: The Clear Winners of the Winter
If any group can already declare victory this offseason, it’s the bullpen arms.
Relief pitchers have dominated the market, with eight different relievers landing contracts worth $20 million or more.
The rush has left only a thin group of proven late-inning options still available.
Their agents know the leverage they hold.
Almost every contender seems obsessed with shortening games and locking down the ninth inning.
Relief aces and setup men have become some of the most sought-after—and best-paid—assets of the winter.
Here is the source article for this story: Passan’s hot stove temperature check: What’s next in MLB free agency and on the trade market
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